Boxing

The Incredible Tendency For People To Overreact After Surprising Results

By James Cranch

13.03 - There is one thing that puzzles me about boxing punditry. This is the incredible tendency for people to overreact after hearing surprising results. Wherever an underdog wins, a mob always springs up to tell everyone who'll listen how this guy is "going straight to the top", how he's going to "clean out the heavyweight division", and so on. Obviously, this is laughable rubbish in most cases. If every underdog who has beaten an overrated boxer went "straight to the top", then there'd be twice as many ludicrously overhyped boxers at the top as there were before.

Furthermore, people often overreact by accusing the loser of being completely finished. Often these surprise victories are, in practical terms, even less significant blips for the champion's career than they are boosts for the lucky challenger.

I'll try and illustrate this with some examples. Following Lewis - Rahman I, there were the usual crowd of pundits gathering round saying that Rahman was essentially impervious to nearly all forms of physical assault, that he was the new King of the World, and that he could fly and shoot lightning from his fingertips. I don't think that it's necessary to point out how these statements are probably not entirely correct, particularly in light of the rematch.

But what is more, this fight has left a clique of people determined to make it known that Lewis has probably the worst chin of any successful heavyweight today. Really? Show me the evidence. The only evidence is that Lewis went down after a lucky punch by Rahman. Most boxers have gone down to lucky punches from somebody (Ruiz by Tua, Wlad by Corrie, Tyson by Douglas, even Botha by Tyson), and Rahman is a good hitter.

The point is, Lewis's chin is pretty good. He got hit hard by Tyson in round one of his win against Iron Mike. He didn't look any the worse for that. Lewis went twenty-four rounds with Holyfield, and you can't do that unless you have some solidity in your chin. Ray Mercer and Tony Tucker were both hard hitters, and Lewis spent 10 and 12 rounds respectively beating them on points.

All Lewis-Rahman 1 proved was that Lennox Lewis needs to be more careful occasionally (and, indeed, train properly), and that Hasim Rahman is a pretty good boxer.

And again, following Tyson-Etienne, we had to hear everybody say how Tyson was coming back, and would rule the world in months. It's strange how so many people believe this. Not even Iron Mike himself takes this seriously; he has admitted freely on at least two occasions that he can't beat Lewis. It might be worth noting that Tyson actually knows a lot about boxing - more than most pundits.

All this proved was that there's no evidence Etienne can be taken seriously as a top ten boxer. It doesn't make the Tyson of today a god. It doesn't make Etienne the worst boxer ever. It tells you very little, since Etienne apparently decided to stop trying after about 10 seconds. Tyson and Etienne have never actually fought properly, although there's a strong argument that Tyson would win fairly easily even if Etienne was trying.

After the Ruiz-Jones fight, East Side rearranged their heavyweight rankings, moving Ruiz down. To do so is correct. But there were comments abounding such as, "Remove Ruiz from the rankings, he is not even top 100." Is this any kind of sense? Does anybody really think that there are 100 heavyweights out there who can remain standing in a boxing ring with Evander Holyfield for thirty-six consecutive rounds? Does anyone really believe there are 100 heavyweights in the world who can win multiple rounds on points against Kirk Johnson, despite being hit hard below the belt? The Ruiz-Tua fight was a long time ago, and Ruiz has no need to be ashamed by that, either.

Ruiz is still hard. It is not much of a crime to be beaten by somebody who was nothing like anyone he has ever fought, and nothing like anyone most heavyweights have ever fought. Jones Jr. is a legend, as well: being beaten by him is not really any argument against Ruiz.

When Klitschko got beaten by Sanders, within minutes the usual loonies were writing to discussion forums, saying that both Klitschkos have been exposed as shocking boxers, and that they are finished, while Corrie Sanders is going to spend the next few years beating up everybody of any importance in boxing.

In ten years time, I think there's every reason to suggest that people will treat Klitschko-Sanders as being about as significant than Lewis being beaten by McCall. Time will tell: all the people who are suggesting that both Klitschko brothers should retire now don't know what they are talking about.

I believe that viewing these surprise wins in this way is bad for the sport. This is for two reasons.

Firstly, part of the appeal of world-class heavyweight boxing is that nearly every good heavyweight can beat nearly other heavyweight on a good day. That's what makes it fun: you never go to a fight knowing the result before it starts. You only know which way to bet.

Secondly, these surprise results are good for belt unification. We now have two world champions who are eminently beatable in Corrie Sanders and Roy Jones Jr.; if Byrd and Lewis take an interest, either directly by fighting Sanders or Jones, or indirectly in fighting somebody who's challenged them, then we can see the belts coming together. Currently, all the belt-holders are very definitely beatable, except Lewis.

Unification is good: it's great to have one official champion. And when this happens, then I believe that contrary to all that I've heard it will not be Mike Tyson. It will not be Roy Jones Jr., and it definitely won't be Corrie Sanders.

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