Boxing

Weekend Predictions: Calzaghe v Mitchell, Cotto v Martinez and more


Photo © Tom Casino / Showtime

By James McDonnell

25.06 - Calzaghe v Mitchell: This is a major crossroads fight for both participants. Mitchell is of course the former WBA titlist, who recently lost his title to the fighter who holds the three major sanctioning bodies belts, Sven Ottke. Calzaghe by contrast, is a long standing WBO champion, an honour he has held since winning the vacant title against one of the most high profile Super Middleweight champions, Chris Eubank, who came in as a late weight drained substitute for the retired Steve Collins.

Either fighter has a lot to lose or gain from this fight. Should Mitchell lose, he will be consigned to the realm of peripheral former champs, while if he wins he will have the WBO title, and a chance to get a second crack at Ottke and the belt he relinquised to him.

Has this fight been a year or two ago, I would undoubtedly picked Calzaghe, without a moment's hesitation, but a lot has happened since then, which causes me to be less emphatic about making a prediction.

Calzaghe hasn't been as impressive in recent times. His peak form is perhaps almost 3 years ago, when he fought and destroyed highly regarded (at the time) Omar Sheika in four rounds.

Since then, Calzaghe has struggled to impress, partly due to big fights falling through (Tate, Hopkins, Eastman, Joppy), but also partially because of hand injuries, which appear to have taken away some of his pop in the ring. Although he has destroyed the likes of Tocker Pudwill and Mario Veit, it's his rather more pedestrian efforts against Giminez and Brewer that are indicative to me of his current form. Worryingly he was unable to take Brewer down, something Antwun Echols was able to do three times in their fight, and something other men had done before. It begged the question as to whether Calzaghe's reputation as a power puncher were not somewhat overrated.

However, this needs to be tempered with the realisation that Mitchell doesn't have the greatest pedigree as a champion. His best fight was perhaps his losing effort to Sven Ottke, when he pushed the champion to a very close split decision. Mitchell has never been a dominant champion, losing his title first time around to mediocre Bruno Girard. Even if it was a contested decision, a dominant champion would not be losing to the likes of Girard.

The main factor in this fight for me, is Calzaghe's power, and his granite chin. Calzaghe has never been knocked down as a pro (or as an amateur according to his father and trainer Enzo), and has been in with a proven big hitter, though perhaps a faded one, in Charles Brewer. Brewer brings nothing to the stage that I think Cazlaghe cannot handle, and if Calzaghe's hands hold up, I can see him repeatedly stinging Mitchell if it turns into a toe-to-toe battle.

This would perhaps not be such a factor in my opinion, were it not for recent interviews with Mitchell, which indicate that he is intent in turning this into a brawl to avoid it going to the scorecards. Mitchell feels he has been the recipient of two dubious hometown decisions against Bruno Girard earlier in his career, and against Ottke, which he, and some others also felt he had done enough to get the nod.

Calzaghe has never struggled with people who have come to fight, and the occasions he has looked lacklustre have been against defensively astute fighters who have managed to negate much of his work, and made him look ordinary in winning.

If Mitchell meets fire with fire, it is likely to be he who is extinguished, and if he chooses to try and outbox Calzaghe, I don't think he has the skills to do so. Calzaghe is the more natural fighter of the two, and on a good night when fired up, which he surely will be for this contest, he fights with an intensity nobody has been so far able to match. Calzaghe may have dipped in form since two years ago, but he's not on the slide just yet, just in a trough partly caused by a lack of big time fights.

There are those who think Calzaghe is looking past this fight, and onward and upward to light heavyweight (you know who you are), but I don't see that happening. There is too much to be gained from a win here, and it might make a fight between himself and Ottke saleable enough to tempt the German fighter into the ring to risk his belts. Even were that not the case, maintaining his unbeaten streak will give him more bargaining power if he wants to make it big stateside, which has been his ambition for many years now.

My misgivings about Calzaghe are his lack of big fights over the past two years, and the fact that his punchpower doesn't seem to be what it once was, particularly against seasoned campaigners, which Mitchell is. However, Mitchell doesn't have a resume packed with stars either, and following his showing against Ottke, perhaps his self belief won't be so high either.

I see Mitchell bringing the fight to Calzaghe, and making a real brawl of it, but coming up short. Calzaghe will have no qualms about meeting Mitchell head on, confident that in scenarios like this he has always come out on top. Mitchell has been downed by Manny Siaca before, and can be hurt, but is a tough fighter with plenty of experience. Calzaghe was unable to stop Brewer, but I don't think Mitchell is as rough and tough as Brewer, and I think Calzaghe will either win a wide points decision, or stop Mitchell late on.

Putting my neck on the line - Calzaghe WTKO10


Well, three other title fights this week, and they should be exciting ones too. I have to confess that I have seen very little of these fighters, one of the perils of watching boxing in the UK where coverage is somewhat more focussed on domestic interests. However, I fancy my changes at being a 'boxadamus' so here goes, based on what little I know about the participants and their records, here are my predictions for two of the other big bouts of the week.


Cotto v Martinez

Not a certainty by any means, Cotto is a rising star, but is being moved pretty quickly for an inexperienced fighter, and like many aggressive power-punchers, is in danger of being exposed before he has had time to learn his craft properly.

Martinez seems like a calculated risk to me. At the age of 22, and with only 2 years of pro experience, Cotto is gambling his fast-earned contender status against a far more experienced opponent.

Cotto's camp will be gambling on the disparity in power, and the fact that at 32, and with only 2 wins out of his last 5 fights, Martinez is a fighter on the slide. However, more accomplished fighters than Cotto have come unstuck against supposedly shot opposition, Barrera v Jr Jones ring any bells.

However, Martinez doesn't have the pedigree of a former world champ, and isn't as skilled a fighter as Jones was, so the comparison perhaps doesn't bear up that well to scrutiny. There's the potential for an upset here, but I don't think it will happen. Martinez hasn't ever really stopped a quality opponent, and Cotto's buzz saw style should be enough to win rounds even if the knockout doesn't come early.

Martinez will hang tough for a while, he's got 11 years more pro experience, but the younger, stronger, and more aggressive Cotto will take him down somewhere around the 8th, if not earlier.

Cotto TKO8


Santos v Zuniga

An interesting one here, and again a potential upset.

Daniel Santos is another up-and-coming fighter, who already has a WBO belt to his name. He already has some decent names on his resume. Yory Boy Campas was over the hill, but vastly more experienced, and Santos' 11th round stoppage proved he could win by KO early or late.

He's also beaten toughman Takaloo, who while a little short of world class is just the sort of fighter that the best fighters use as a measuring stick. Neil Sinclair, a decent English domestic fighter, was taken to pieces in two.

Zuniga is a young prospect, with an impressive 100% KO record. He's only been fighting for 2 years, so is the less experienced of the two. Close scrutiny of his resume, reveals that his impressive string of 15 KO's out of 15 wins, (all in the 1st 3 rounds)has been achieved against a very poor level of competition, whose combined record sports a very low win to loss ratio.

Zuniga is likely to come blazing out of the blocks, and although Santos has been stopped, it was earlier in his career, and he has since beaten better and more dangerous fighters. Santos hasn't lost for 4 years, and is an improved fighter since then, and so you've got to favour him.

Zuniga has never been past the 3rd round, and he's in uncharted territory against a much more seasoned fighter, who was mixed with a higher level of competition. He seems to only know one way to fight, and that's aggressively from the start. With no experience in 12 round fights, if Santos makes it past what is likely to be a torrid opening, his chance improve with each round, provided he hasn't been punished early on.

Zuniga will come out guns blazing, and provided Santos uses his rangy frame wisely, he stops Zuniga somewhere around the 7th.

Santos KO 7


Eric Morel v Isidro Garcia

This is the easiest of the fights to predict, Morel is a cut above his opponent, and is in his prime. Neither of them is a big banger per-se, but Morel wears his opponent's down.

Garcia hasn't the firepower, reach, boxing skills, or power to really trouble Morel, and I can only see one outcome to this fight, an easy win for Morel. Garcia will hang in there a while, his resume indicates he's a stayer on the whole, and Morel hasn't been getting them out of there quickly. Eventually though, Morel will break him down, sometime in the last third of the fight.

Morel WTKO10

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