By Ron Widelec
17.12 - 2002 ended with two very significant fights in as many weeks. The first, and perhaps more important fight involved the likely heir to the division, Wladimir Klitschko, and rising heavyweight contender Jameel McCline. The second match-up involved two smallish heavyweights, Chris Byrd, and the all-time great, Evander Holyfield.
In the first match Klitschko simply proved the better fighter in every aspect of the game. He was quicker, stronger, and more accurate over the ten rounds of the fight. After the tenth round, and a knock down, McCline decided not to come out for the eleventh round. In this weekend's bout, Byrd was able to utilize his speed and slick style to confound and overwhelm the aging Holyfield.
As the year comes to an end, and there is no heavyweight match of any real significance for a few months, now is a great time to look at the division and make some predictions about the future. As always, its best to start from the top and work our way down.
Champion Lennox Lewis: Lewis was very inactive in 2002, facing only one opponent: a very washed up Mike Tyson. However, the payday was so good, who can really blame him. Hopefully, 2003 will be a more active year for the Champ. Lewis has stated his plan to face Vitali Klitschko, followed by a rematch with Tyson, and then targeting Wladimir Klitschko before retiring. At the pace Lewis has been fighting, and when his age is considered, we can assume at least 6 months between this fights, meaning that this three fight series will take about 18 months to complete. This would make Lewis nearly 39 by the time he completes his plan, assuming he wins all three fights. However, the Vitali fight seems to be in limbo, and Lewis may be searching for a new opponent for early next year. Also, it is unclear whether or not Tyson will even choose to fight Lewis after the beating he received early this year, and before that can even be considered, Tyson has to beat Clifford Etienne. A few months ago 2003 looked all set up for Lewis, but now there are no certainties.
Wladimir Klitschko: The younger Klitschko has been on a roll lately. The question now is, where does he go from here. Lewis has made it clear that he does not want to fight Wladimir until two fights from now. This works out well for Wladimir, who is not yet ready for Lennox Lewis, but will most likely beat every other fighter in the division. All that is left for Klitschko is to gain more experience by fighting top rated opponents. Luckily for Klitschko, a perfect window of opportunity opened up for him when Kirk Johnson made public his desire to fight Wladimir. Kirk is the ideal opponent for Klitshcko to fight, while biding time for a real title shot. Johnson has a solid record, is highly ranked by the organizations, and has a name in the division. But, he is not a power puncher, is limited in skills, and has not shown the discipline needed to compete at the highest level of the division.
Chris Byrd: Byrd's victory over Holyfield places him in the rank of Champion, according to one of the bogus sanctioning bodies. Although he is not the real champion, he is undoubtedly a top contender, and showed it once more this weekend. Byrd is as much a threat to Lewis as is anyone in the division. If you think Lewis is avoiding Byrd because he thinks Byrd cannot challenge him, you are living in a dream world. With the Lewis-V. Klitschko bout in question Byrd might find himself filling the spot. Otherwise Byrd may be heading to meet the winner of a possible Roy Jones- John Ruiz. A third option may be to fight the winner of Tua-Rahman, which will likely be Tua, setting up an interesting match-up.
David Tua: Tua is making a resurgence in the division, and is on a collision coarse with former Undisputed champion Hasim Rahman, in a rematch of their 1998 bout. In '98 Rahman boxed circles around Tua until finally being caught after the bell in the 9th. Rahman, who is known for a weak chin, was unable to recover and was knocked out in the 10th. Recently Tua has revived his career with a string of wins, While Rahman has lost his last two bouts. Tua has all the momentum in this fight. If Tua wins this fight he will have a strong position in the division.. Maybe a rematch with Byrd is on the horizon.
Evander Holyfield: Holyfield's future in the division is dubious at best. He has now won only two of his last 7 fights. Granted, he was never beaten badly, and in all of the fights he had a decent shot to win, but still, the record must mean something. Even so, he is still a top contender. Where he can go from here is hard to say. Lewis will not fight him, nor has he earned that shot yet. Holyfield will try to fight top rated opponents that can lead him to a title shot, but there are certain fighters he will likely aviod. Fighters like David Tua, Wladimir Klitschko, or a rematch with Byrd. Fighters that Holyfield might look to face would be Vitali Klitschko, if the Vitali can't land the Lewis fight, Jameel McCline, Kirk Johnson, Fres Oquendo, Hasim Rahman, and maybe Mike Tyson again. There are nothing definite in the future for Holyfield, other then the fact that he will continue to campaign at the age of 40.
John Ruiz: Ruiz's next bout seems to be with light heavyweight king Roy Jones, but that fight still seems to be less then certain. For months on end we have been hearing that this fight is 99% done, but there are still certain kinks to work out. The idea is that the winner of Ruiz-Jones will face Byrd, now that Byrd beat Holyfield. But with these fights happening months apart, if ever, these ideas may never come to fruition. If the Jones fight falls through, Ruiz may elect to fight the winner of Tua v. Rahman, as long as its not Tua!
Vitali Klitschko: Vitali is still hoping for the Lewis fight, and as number one contender it is likely to happen, once the money gets worked out. If this fight happens I cannot see Vitali lasting through 6 rounds, but he has a punchers chance. Fighting guys like Larry Donald (who are undeservingly high ranked fluff fighters) cannot prepare him for the likes of Lewis. If the Lewis fight does fall through, look for Vitali to just fight named fighters, with decent ranks to pad his record and protect his #1 contender ranking.
Fres Oquendo: Fres just fought and won this week, but against light opposition. You can bet money that Oquendo won't go after one of the titans of the division. So you can count out guys like the Klitschkos. Look for Fres to target some decent, top 20 ranked, 6'3 and under, guys to rebuild his confidence. Maybe Joe Mesi, Danny Williams, Jeremy Williams, or Charles Shufford; nothing to write home about.
Jameel McCline: McCline will likely go back to the B level opposition to rebuild his confidence. Look for him to target much of the same guys as Oquendo. The perfect fighter for him would be Holyfeild. Holyfeild doesn't have the big power to push McCline around, but will force McCline to fight non-stop, and teach McCline some tricks and determination.
Hasim Rahman: Rahman looked awful in his last bout with Holyfield, and now he will be getting in the ring with Tua in 2003. Rahman simply has not looked good since the first fight with Lewis. It is doubtful that he will last a full 10 rounds with Tua this time, as his has given up on using his boxing skills recently. If Rahman gets through Tua, or the Tua fight falls through, Don King may be setting up a Ruiz v. Rahman match-up.
Kirk Johnson: Johnson couldn't have looked much worse against Ruiz in his last outing, and he is committing ring suicide if he is truly trying to fight Wladimir Klitschko. Johnson won't last two rounds in this fight. However, he may have to risk this, since he turned a lot of fans into skeptics recently. Beyond Wladimir, Johnson's future is hard to see from this juncture.
