Tua-Moorer and other fight predictions for this Weekend

Photo: Tom Casino/Showtime

By Jim De Pierro

17.08 - Once again boxing fans are stuck with the quandary of whether to watch the Showtime card of Calzaghe vs. Jimenez or HBO card of Moorer vs. Tua this weekend as both shows are scheduled to begin within 15 minutes of each other. The only thing I can say to that is thank God for VCRs. For those of you who get Fox Sports you may want to tune in Sunday as James Toney continues his climb up the cruiserweight ranks in search of a title shot with Vasily Jirov when he takes on Jason Robinson in the main event.

Joe Calzaghe 33-0 (27 KOs) vs. Miguel Jimenez 20-1 (10 KOs)

Miguel Jimenez looks to be one of these fighters who have built up a nice record on paper while fighting in relative obscurity. The only recognizable name on Jimenez’s resume is Segundo Mercado who is best known for going 0-1-1 with Bernard Hopkins years ago before Hopkins unified the middleweight titles. In my column on Calzaghe vs. Brewer I predicted Brewer would win because I didn’t think that Calzaghe had faced anyone of the caliber of a tough Philadelphia fighter like Brewer while fighting mostly in Europe. Calzaghe based on his last performance by going toe to toe with Brewer has certainly proved me wrong. Brewer hit Calzaghe with just about everything but the kitchen sink and couldn’t even score a knockdown. Calzaghe was giving more than he received and won just about every round. Brewer is about as a heavy a puncher Calzaghe is ever likely to face at super middleweight. If Brewer couldn’t put Calzaghe away after landing his best punch that tells me that Calzaghe’s chin is solid. At this point I am probably even slightly more inclined to pick Calzaghe over Bernard Hopkins should that fight ever occur.

I don’t know much about Jimenez but I think it will only be a matter of time before Calzaghe stops Jimenez inside the distance. Calzaghe will every round en route to a TKO victory.

Joe Calzaghe TKO 9 over Miguel Jimenez

Jermain Taylor 10-0 (7 KOs) vs. Sam Hill 15-2-1 (8 KOs)

Many of you are no doubt wondering who in Sam Hill is Sam Hill. Well, I will tell you who Sam Hill is. Sam Hill is most likely to end up in boxing history as a footnote for being the fighter that ended the career of David Reid. Reid’s career had effectively been over since he stepped into the ring with Felix Trinidad yet he fought on for three or four more fights in very unimpressive performances. Sam Hill just happened to be the one in the right place at the right time to pick up the pieces of a shattered career and a broken dream. Sam Hill makes his living as a St. Louis cop and isn’t a full time boxer. Sam Hill is probably about in the same league as Ricky Frazier, the New York cop who was one of Roy Jones’s bum of the month title defenses a few years back.

Hill isn’t a bad fighter but I don’t think he has any chance of competing on an elite level if he continues his boxing career as a part time boxer. In his fight with Reid, Hill looked almost tentative at times as though he was expecting Reid to turn into the highly touted prospect who won Olympic gold at any moment. I could be wrong but I think Hill wasn’t really expecting to beat Reid that night and was a little taken aback about how easy of a time he was having against Reid. Hill eventually finished off Reid but not after an impassioned plea from Hills corner to get Reid out of there. One of the people in Hill’s corner made the comment that all Reid was trying to do was trick Hill into doing nothing which was pretty much true and at some points in that fight Reid was successful in doing that. If Hill were to emerge victorious Saturday night Sam Hill might actually become a name to be reckoned with instead of as part of an odd expression.

Jermain Taylor, like David Reid was also an Olympian. Taylor won bronze as member of the 2000 US Olympic team. Taylor IMO is one of the better American prospects to come out of the 2000 Olympic team. Right now I think Ricardo Williams is the best Olympic prospect. Not that this is saying much but I think Taylor is better than Reid ever was. In the few times I have seen Taylor he has shown me that he has a very fast jab and good hand speed. I don’t think Taylor does anything exceptionally well but he seems to be one of these guys who looks to be above average. Jermain Taylor is no has been like David Reid. I expect that Taylor will make Hill look like the journeyman fighter he is in a one sided fight.

Jermain Taylor KO 5 over Sam Hill

Michael Moorer 43-2-1 (34 KOs) vs. David Tua 40-3 (35 KOs)

Just about everyone seems to be of the mind that Moorer will box Tua’s head off for a few round before Tua catches Moorer at some point and sends him into la la land. While that is certainly a plausible scenario and I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if that happened I just don’t see this fight as a slam-dunk for Tua. I think this fight is a pick em fight but I wouldn’t be much of a prediction columnist if I didn’t offer an opinion on who I think will win.

I am going with Moorer in this one. It is true that Tua has the bigger punch, the better beard and has lately been competing at a higher level than Moorer. The difference to me though is that Moorer has competed at a championship level before and won. The only time Tua has stepped up to that level was against Lewis and he lost just about every round. Moorer is a former light heavyweight and heavyweight champion. He has fought 30 championship rounds with Holyfield on two occasions and 10 rounds with Foreman who he was easily beating until the 10th round. If you count all the title defenses Moorer made of his WBO light-heavyweight title and some of the non-linear heavyweight title fights against the likes of Botha, Schulz and Bean Moorer easily has over 100+ championship rounds to his credit. Experience, if anything favors Moorer in this match up.

Moorer has gotten knocked down on many occasions by lesser fighters who shouldn’t have been able to put him there but Moorer with the exception of the 1-2 Foreman landed on him has gotten up on every occasion. I think Moorer’s problem is more his balance than his chin. Even against Evander Holyfield in their rematch in 1997 Moorer got up clearheaded every time despite being knocked down five times. Moorer has no one to blame but himself for that dismal performance against Holyfield the second time but you also have to take into consideration that Moorer came into that fight very overweight in bad condition. I don’t think Holyfield was in very good condition the first time he fought Moorer either as the subsequent heart condition following the loss to Moorer proved. I am probably the only person who would like to see Holyfield-Moorer III fight because I don’t believe a top conditioned Holyfield and a top conditioned Moorer have ever been in the ring at the same time. If Moorer finds himself in trouble or pinned against the ropes with Tua he would be wise to take a knee and give himself a breather from the throwin Samoan.

Conditioning is going to be a big factor in this fight. Both fighters are guilty of coming into the ring in less than 100% on occasion. The difference to me though is that Tua’s weight has generally been spiraling upwards in the last few years while Moorer looks to me recently to be in a little bit better shape and a little sharper with each outing. With Tua heading in the wrong direction IMO and Moorer gradually improving I am inclined to think that Moorer will be the one coming into the ring in better shape.

If Moorer stands toe to toe with Tua he is going to get knocked out at some point. The Moorer of 1994 that fought George Foreman probably would fight Tua that way and subsequently lose. Today Moorer is a little older, a little wiser and more mature. I genuinely believe Moorer learned from the mistakes of his past both in and out of the ring and will fight a very disciplined fight. I don’t think Tua knows how to handle southpaws very well and Moorer is about as crafty a southpaw your likely to come across in the heavyweight division. One of the biggest strengths of Moorer as a fighter is that he is ambidextrous and can fight with either hand. Moorer is not the defensive wizard that Chris Byrd is but he has an advantage over Byrd in that he has enough power to get Tua’s respect. The only realistic way for Moorer to stop Tua inside the distance other than something like a cut is to tire the Tuaman out and take the attack to him when he is tired in the later rounds. If Byrd had the punching power of Moorer I believe he could have stopped David Tua.

Fights between two fighters who are friends as Tua and Moorer are can a lot of times turn into stinkers because both fighters will respect each other too much. Hopefully that won’t be the case with this fight. I don’t think this fight will be a stinker but I don’t fight of the year fight coming out of this match up. Moorer often fights down to his level of competition and Tua can be plodding at times and is always one dimensional in his approach.

I think Tua is going to come hard for the first two or three rounds looking for an early KO. Tua will win some of the early rounds on aggression but will slow down as the fight progresses. Assuming Moorer survives the initial storm, which I think he will, I will look for Moorer to be constantly sticking that right jab in Tua face with a fair amount of movement. I am going to guess that Moorer will probably go down at least once, probably at some point in the middle rounds. I think Moorer can do some damage to Tua but I don’t see him getting a knockdown against Tua. When all is tallied up and done I expect Moorer will win a tight unanimous decision (95-94, 96-93, 96-94). Tua will be more beat up than he was in the Byrd fight but will at least have the satisfaction of having been able to hit Moorer at some point.

Michael Moorer UD over David Tua

James Toney 64-4-2 (41 KOs) vs. Jason Robinson 16-2 (10 KOs)

Sooner or later James Toney is going to lose again. I am guessing within a year Toney will have a 5th loss on his record but so far he has been looking good lately. Robinson had a good scrap with up and coming cruiserweight O’Neil Bell some months back. I don’t see Robinson causing an upset here.

James Toney TKO 6 over Jason Robinson

* * * * Bonus Prediction * * * *

Clifford Ettiene will be the opponent of choice for Tyson's next fight tentatively scheduled for November 9 on Showtime. Other frequently mentioned names are John Ruiz and Frans Botha.