Tito’s Resurgence and other Predictions

By Jim De Pierro

A little less than one year ago Felix Trinidad (40-1-0 [33]) stood on the verge of greatness. After having demolished William Joppy to lay claim to the WBA Middleweight title no task seemed to hard no feat was seen as out of reach for the 40-0 fighter from Puerto Rico. Felix Trinidad’s future seemed assured as Bernard Hopkins was coming off a lopsided yet uninspiring unanimous decision to Keith Holmes whose only goal that night seemed to be to go the distance and hope in vain that Bernard Hopkins might get himself disqualified. Bernard Hopkins despite his long reign as the IBF and now WBC champion was seen as little more than a stepping-stone for an eventual showdown with Roy Jones Jr. After all Bernard Hopkins was nothing but 37-year-old ex-con with a big mouth and a title who had already had his shot at Roy Jones and blew it. With 3-1 odds mounted against him Hopkins seemed certain to join the ranks of Pernell Whitaker, Oscar De La Hoya, Fernando Vargas and David Reid as champions who had all met defeat at the hands of Tito Trinidad.

To just about everyone’s surprise (to those of you who picked Hopkins to beat Trinidad give yourself a big pat on the back you deserve it) Hopkins not only won but gave the Puerto Rican superstar a systematic beating administered over the course of twelve rounds. Even those closest to Trinidad urged him to consider retirement. I had even heard that Trinidad’s wife had been urging Trinidad to retire following the Vargas fight. Trinidad of course did not choose retirement, instead opting to make his return against perennial middleweight contender and ex-WBC titleholder Hacine Chreifi (32-6-1 [20]).

I for one always felt that talk of Trinidad’s retirement was premature. Trinidad’s loss was lopsided and while physically it certainly didn’t do his body any good it was not much worse than the average KO loses seen on Friday night fights every week. Telling a fighter who is in the prime of his career that he should retire because of one loss strikes me as rather odd. I never dismiss anyone after one loss because to me one of the most important traits of a fighter is to see what they learned as a result of losing and how they adapt in future fights and in rematches. It certainly wasn’t anywhere the caliber of Arturo Gatti knocking out Joey Gamache, which is the type of knockout that should prompt retirement.

I have only watched Cherifi a few times and while my exposure to him is limited he has no exceptional attributes that suggest to me that he could beat Trinidad. Cherifi biggest win was over Keith Holmes if you could even call that a big win and Holmes later avenged that loss with a 7th round TKO. One common opponent that Cherifi and Trinidad share is William Joppy who beat Cherifi on points en route to a unanimous decision whereas Trinidad easily disposed of Joppy with his 5th round TKO in May of 2001.

There are only two possible factors to suggest that Cherifi might have a chance against Trinidad. One is the allegation that Trinidad has for all this time been wrapping his hands illegally and thus his power is not what it is built up to be. Personally I think that was more of a mind game on team Hopkins part to get under the skin of Trinidad. Not that I think their concerns were completely unjustified but it is my guess that their reasons were 80% to get a mental edge on Trinidad and 20% because they felt Trinidad was getting an unfair physical advantage. Since Hopkins called Trinidad on that Joppy and Vargas have now sited how Trinidad wraps his hands as reasons for there loses. Sounds like sour grapes to me on the part of defeated foes. I find it hard to believe that Trinidad could get to be 40-0 while having fought on the world stage all this time while having his hands illegally wrapped without anyone else noticing. It should be noted that different sites and venues have different rules concerning how fighter’s hands are wrapped.

The other factor that could bode well in Cherifi’s favor is that Trinidad is coming off the first loss of his career and a KO loss at that. It remains to be seen if Trinidad is one of these fighters who once they have tasted defeat begin to decline mentally from a loss of confidence. I don’t believe that will be the case with Trinidad and I don’t think Hopkin’s KO will have lasting physical repercussions. It should be noted that Cherifi is coming off a loss to Simon Brown who did quite well in his bout against Cherifi.

My prediction is that Cherifi will give some effort to win initially but will soon go into survival mode as soon as he takes a few hard shots from Trinidad. Ultimately Cherifi’s goal will be to go the distance. Trinidad has been susceptible to early round knockdowns in a quite a few of his fights and it wouldn’t surprise me if Cherifi were to get one himself but in no way do I expect him to win. Eventually I expect Trinidad to hunt Cherifi down and take him out inside the distance.

Felix Trinidad TKO 10 over Hacine Cherife

The under card should make for a more exciting fight than the main event as jr welterweights Diobelys Hurtado (34-2-1 [22]) will take on Randal Bailey (25-1-0 [25]) for Bailey’s WBA jr. welterweight title. Some of you may be scratching your head thinking ‘wait a minute isn’t Kostya Tszyu the undisputed Jr welterweight champion?’ Well he is but the WBA recognizes him as a “Super Champion” whatever the hell that is. Its pathetic what sanctioning bodies will lower them selves to in order to find a way to collect more in the way of sanctioning fees.

Hurtado, like many fighters who come from Cuba to make a career in the USA is a good well-rounded fighter. Hurtado was giving Pernell Whitaker all he could handle and came close to derailing the Whitaker-De La Hoya fight. Hurtado will always stand out in my mind as the only opponent where Whitaker knocked someone out in pure desperation. The Hurtado fight in retrospect I think was the beginning of the end for Sweet Pea even though Whitaker won with a 11th round TKO when he managed to pin Hurtado against the ropes and unleash a series of savage left hooks on Hurtado. Hurtado managed to give a good account of himself in a losing effort to Kostya Tszyu where he knocked Tszyu down twice in the first round before being stopped in the 5th round. Hurtado’s most defining fights have been ones he has lost although he has beaten a number of respectable opponents since losing to Tszyu.

Randal Bailey, I have only seen once (I believe it was Carlos Gonzales) and he totally annihilated the guy in one round. Bailey is the type of fighter you only need to see once and you will remember who he is. The longer the fight goes the more it should favor Hurtado whose ring experience far exceeds that of Bailey who has only gone the distance once in a losing effort and only has five fights that have gone past the 3rd round. Hurtado in the two fights that he lost has shown a weakness to fighters who are able to mount a sustained offense. Bailey without a doubt hits harder than Pernel Whitaker and probably harder than Kostya Tszyu. Given the amount of early KO’s on Bailey’s record and his demonstrated one punch KO power my guess is that Bailey will get lucky and starch Hurtado early before he becomes much of a problem.
Randal Bailey KO2 over Diobelys Hurtado.

* * * BONUS PREDICTION * * *

Hector Camacho Sr. after witnessing Tony Ayala make short work of Urbano Gurrola will want no part of Ayala and will let talk of a possible showdown between himself and Ayala die down. Next up for Ayala are rumors of a possible fight against Vinny Paz. Not a good way to get to win number 50 if you’re Vinny Paz. Ayala by KO if that ever happen.

Agree? Disagree? Think I´m full of it? E-mail me at dman4673@earthlink.net and tell me what you think or post a comment.