Predictions: Mosley vs Marquez, Weis vs Burton, Lewis vs Margarito

by Jim "Boxadamus" De Pierro

Omar Weiss 35-4-3 (16 KOs) vs. Emanuel Burton-Augustus 27-19-5 (13 KOs)

(ESPN2, Main Event)

Forget my prediction of who I think will win this fight. My biggest prediction for this fight is that fight fans are in for a doozy. I think were looking at a possible fight of the year in this match up. I remember being in a boxing forum some months back and the question being discussed was if you could be matchmaker for ESPN2 and create any one fight (realistically within ESPN 2's budget of course) what would it be. My first choice was what I would bill the battle of the spoilers in the 140 lb. division between Omar Weiss and Emanule Augustus (formerly Emanuel Burton).

This fight is about as even as it gets in being a competitive fight but I have to give the slight edge to Weiss in this match up just due to the fact that Weiss is just a little bit more consistant. Augustus on top of his game is slightly better than Weiss IMO but the problem with Augustus is that I think he has a losers mentality. Its not something he does consciously but I think he enjoys the part of playing the clown to much in a lot of his fights which ends up costing him. Augustus can be discouraged if he gets off to a really bad start. If both fighters were only given a few days notice I would pick Augustus as he is used to taking fights on short notice. A longer training camp benefits Augustus opponents more than it does him.

Omar Weiss comes to win and like Augustus he has had his fair share of decisions that should have gone his way go to his opponents. The crucial difference in this fight between Augustus and Weiss is that when Weiss enters the ring he comes in as a fighter determined to walk out of the ring with a W in his column. When Augustus enters the ring he doesn't enter the ring as only a fighter but also as a clown. Augustus goal when he steps between the ropes too often for his own good is to play the part of the entertainer rather than the fighter. Their is nothing wrong with clowns and I will always tune in when Augustus is fighting but I think a more determined and serious Weiss should beat Emanuel Augustus in a very close and entertaining fight. It will be interesting to see how Weiss deals with Augustus showboating.

Omar Weiss SD over Emanuel Augustus

Andrew "6-Heads" Lewis 22-1-0-1 NC (20 KOs) vs. Antonio Margarito 27-3 (18 KOs)

(HBO, Undercard)

This is certainly the most compelling HBO fight this weekend in that it would not be a huge upset if either fighter were to emerge victorious with the WBO belt. Oddsmakers have Margarito pegged as an almost a three to one favorite (-275, Olympic Sports) to beat Andrew Lewis (+235) and I would tend to concur that Margarito should more likely than not beat Lewis although I wouldn't bet on this fight myself with those odds simply because of the fact that Lewis although he doesn't have much else does have quite a bit of pop in his punches and I haven't seen a whole lot of Margarito to gage how good of a fighter he is.

The only fight of Margarito's that stands out in my mind was his fight with Antonio Diaz where he looked good but not spectacular in grounding out a 10th round TKO. Diaz has always been a solid fighter although not quite championship caliber fighter. Diaz IMO is a good barometer for measuring where a fighter stands. Mosley was able to get the same job done in 6 rounds in more dominant fashion but then again most fighters (Margarito among them) don't have the talent of Mosley.

The joke about Lewis is that he has got six heads and only one chin and that IMO sums up Lewis perfectly. Lewis, I think has largely been dismissed by most serious boxing fans after he lost his title to the wild swinging Ricardo Mayorga. Now that Vernon Forrest has fallen victim to the Nicaraguan slugger Lewis loss doesn't look quite as bad in retrospect but even in other performances (Larry Marks comes to mind) Lewis has looked vulnerable on other occasions. Margarito, from what I have seen of him does everything good but not great. I would give Lewis an edge in the power department as evindenced by his 22 KOs. For those of you curious about Margarito's three losses they all came relatively early in his career (3 losses in his first 12 fights). Margarito is undefeated in his last 20 fights and hasn't lost since 1996.

Lewis, in his prefight build up to his re-match with Ricardo Mayorga had a lot of pride to swallow given the trash talking from Ricardo Mayorga who promised and delivered on his claim that he would KO Lewis. I haven't seen Lewis-Mayorga II in a while but I remember Lewis didn't really seem like he protested the referees call to stop the fight although I think he said he disagreed with the stoppage in the post fight interview. This is just my hunch and I could be wrong but I think Lewis confidence in himself as a result of two bruising battles with Mayorga has been shaken and it will show in his fight with Margarito. I see Lewis being very tentative in this fight and losing just about every round by not throwing enough punches. I think Margarito will gradually build up the tempo as the fight progresses with Lewis retreating into a defensive shell. Lewis will go down twice during the course of the fight and barely survive to lose a very lopsided decision.

Antonio Margarito UD over Andrew Lewis

Shane Mosley 38-2 (35 KOs) vs. Raul Marquez 34-2 (23 KOs)

(HBO, Main Even)

I don't know anybody who thinks Raul Marquez is going to win this fight. For me, the only question in this fight is how and when does Mosley win this fight. The Forrest-Mosley fights proved to me two things. One, the head-butt in the first fight was indeed a factor and adversley affected Mosley performance more so than it did Forrests. The second thing that was proven as a result of those two fights was that Forrest does indeed have Mosley's number. Questions still remain if Forrest is just a one hit wonder who is only good at beating Shane Mosley but that is another topic for another day. Mosley, as far as I am concerned is the real deal and will be remembered as one of the best fighters of our time when the history books are written.

I guess I should say a few words about Marquez even though I don't know a whole lot about him. I know I have seen Marquez fight on plenty of occasions but he is just one of these types of guys that you can see fight 20 times and he just doesn't stand out in your mind. Marquez's most defining fights thus far have been his losses to Yory Boy Campus who stopped him in eight and Fernando Vargas who stopped him in eleven. I expect Mosley will stop him somewhere in between those two numbers.

The only factors that I see that can work in Marquez's favor is the fact that Mosley is coming off two losses and he this will be his first fight at jr. Middleweight. Mosley comes across as a very confident individual and I doubt that his confidence level is at all adversely affected by his losses to Forrest. I have no doubt that Mosley, in his mind, feels that he beat Forrest the second time around. I don't foresee Mosley's confidence level being a factor at all in this fight. The move from Welterweight to Jr. Middleweight is less of a jump then going from Lightweight to Welterweight as Mosley did in 1999 when he fough Wilfredo Rivera. Rivera as I recall was giving Mosley a pretty good run for his money before succumbing in the 10th round to the firepower of the sugar man. Marquez isn't quite the contender that Rivera was IMO. I predict the Mosley of old (pre-Forrest) in a spectacular win.

Shane Mosley KO 8 over Raul Marquez

Agree? Disagree? Think I'm full of it? E-mail me at boxadamus@surfglobal.net and

tell me what you think or post a comment.