Boxing
LewIS TysON

What I think will happen

By Jim De Pierro

06.06 - Well it looks like this fight really is going to happen after all. I must say I had my doubts. I won’t believe it until I hear the opening bell which will pit heavyweight champion Lennox Lewis 39-2-1 (30 KOs) against the self described baddest man on the planet “Iron” Mike Tyson 49-3-0-2 NC (43 KOs). The only thing I can say to those who have been looking forward to this fight for so long is be careful for what you wish for you just might get it.

My hunch is that there is still an eleventh hour surprise waiting in the wings that will jeopardize this fight. Whether it will be Mike Tyson doing something stupid or an outside interest like Don King who would stand to benefit if this fight doesn’t occur without him getting a slice of the pie I don’t know but that is my hunch.

Predicting the outcome of a fight is never easy but this fight in particular is even more difficult because of the erratic behavior of one of the fights participants Mike Tyson. In a Tyson fight anything is possible. The only thing to expect is the unexpected. Of course an unexpected outcome in this case would be for this fight to actually be a boxing match. My prediction is limited mainly to what I think the official outcome of this fight will be.

I could tell you about how Lewis’s quality of opposition has been superior to Tyson’s in recent years. I could point to Tyson’s long periods of inactivity between fights as to why I think Lewis will win. I might mention how Lewis has been knocked out by the likes of Hasim Rahman and Oliver McCall for reasons why Tyson will win. I could also mention how Lewis has the much better track record against common opponents with the exception of Frank Bruno. All of that has been said before and while they are all good points I think they are largely irrelevant to predicting this fight. The main factor will be Tyson’s state of mind going into this fight. I am of the mind that Tyson will crack in high pressure situations, as has been his recent track record in and out of the ring in recent years.

Tyson fans like to say that if McCall and Rahman were able to KO Lewis with one punch than it’s a sure thing that Lewis will crumble as soon as Tyson lands a flush shot and will thus finish him off. That assumption is faulty for several reasons. First off Tyson has to get in range to land something on Lewis which is going to be very difficult with his 71” reach. McCall and Rahman reaches of 79” and 82” respectively to Lewis’s 84” reach. Rahman was able to land the land the punch he needed in South Africa largely because his reach was almost the same size as Lennox Lewis’s. Tyson in his heyday was able to make up for this by his bobbing and weaving style and constant head movement. Against Andrew Golota in the first round there were flashes of the old Tyson but it still remains to be seen whether he can fight like his old self for an extended period of time. I have my doubts that he still can.

Too many people fall into the idea that the chin of Lewis minus the power of his opponent will determine whether he will get knocked out or not. True Lewis doesn’t have the greatest chin in the world but he has beaten some big punchers before and more times than not emerged the victorious. Rahman is a good puncher but his punching power is not on the level of other Lewis opponents like Razor Ruddock, Tommy Morrison, Frank Bruno or David Tua all of whom punch harder than Rahman IMO. Lewis was able to take a couple of Tua hooks and while they knocked him back some he was not out on his feet or in any serious trouble. Lewis has taken some decent shots but nobody ever remembers the ones that he stood up to they only remember the ones that knocked him out.

One common assumption about this fight that I don’t think runs true in Tyson’s favor is that the longer the fight goes the more likely it is Lewis will win. I think in some ways the longer the fight goes could actually favor Tyson because it will get rid of some ring rust. Nielson really didn’t do anything a sparing partner could do. Tyson’s sparing partners for this fight are reported to be Derrick Jefferson and Corey “T-Rex” Sanders (the American fighter). Both of those guys are about the same size as Lennox Lewis but they don’t fight anything at all like Lewis and are poor preparation.

For many boxing fans Lennox Lewis is regarded as boring fighter for his sometimes conservative boxing style. They lament him for his unwillingness to go for the KO against the likes of Tua and Holyfield instead opting to box for twelve round decisions. Personally I enjoyed the second Lewis-Holyfield fight but many people seem to regard both fights as boring. It is generally regarded that Tyson is the bigger puncher but I think their punching power is about the same. Tyson gives the appearance of having more power because of his aggressive style.

Against Tyson I expect Lewis will be more aggressive than most boxing fans are used to seeing him for several reasons. First off when Tyson took a bite out of Lewis’s thigh he made the fight personal in the same way when Rahman implicitly questioned Lewis’s sexuality and a brawl ensued afterwards. If the Rahman fights taught me anything about Lewis it is that trash talking doesn’t work on Lewis and if anything only makes Lewis a better fighter. Lewis will be looking to settle the score and gain a sense of vengeance. Another reason is that there is a good chance that Lewis has his mind set on retiring after this fight. His legacy could very well be determined by his performance in this fight.

Some have made the observation that Lewis will fight Tyson like he did Tua but I think it will be an entirely different type of fight. When Lewis fights he dictates terms of how the fight will go. Tua was content to let Lewis win rounds so long as Lewis didn’t knock him out and Lewis was content to win with minimal risk. Tyson will never go for such a deal and will be trying to knock Lewis out from the opening bell. Lewis will of course be expecting this and I think he will land something big on Tyson in the opening seconds of the first round that will at the very least get Tyson’s attention if not knock him down. Tyson will begin to lose his cool after the first hard shot that Lewis lands. I expect Tyson will be eating some hard jabs as he attempts to get inside while Lewis will be looking to catch him with an uppercut. In the clinches Lewis will most likely be using his full 250 lbs to lean down on Tyson and wear him out. I expect a lot of wrestling and have a feeling that they will both fall to the floor while Cotton tries in vain to separate them. At this point the fight will turn into a real fight with kicking, biting and gouging as Tyson will refuse to heed the call of his corner to let go and Lewis will be doing whatever he needs to get Tyson off of him. As for how the unofficial fight will go I don’t know but I think the official outcome will end in something like a double disqualification, no contest or technical decision or draw. I don’t think there has ever been a heavyweight title fight that has ended in a no contest, which means that boxing is due for one. I don’t see this fight going past four rounds.

Lennox Lewis No Contest 2 with Mike Tyson

My prediction is based on the assumption that Mike Tyson will not enter this fight of sound mind. If Tyson is relatively composed as he was in his fights with Golota and Nielson and fights an honest fight I will predict that Lewis KOs Tyson somewhere between 5-12 in a fight that will look something like Tyson-Douglass fight.

* * * Bonus Prediction * * *

Tyson-Lewis will generate less PPV revenue than did Holyfield-Tyson II.

 

 


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