Fight Predictions: Grant vs Guinn; Gatti V Ward III

By James McDonnell

Grant v Guinn

05.06 - It's always a tough bet calling a Michael Grant fight, even Teddy Atlas doesn't know what type of performance he's going to turn in next.

Once upon a time, before Lennox Lewis destroyed his green foe in 2 rounds, Grant was being widely touted as the next big thing in the division, literally. Not without reason. Grant is a natural athlete, standing at 6' 7", and weighing a trim 240 lbs., Grant has always had the physical tools to be a great heavyweight.

However, it's not all about biceps, lattisimus dorsi and fast twitch fibres, it's the other most important component which Grant has lacked in his biggest fights, the mental fortitude. Although he's still only lost twice, it's the manner of those losses which have consigned Grant to the bin marked never has been.

Upstairs, so conventional wisdom has it, Grant lacks the mental fortitude to make a great heavyweight.

His first loss to Lewis was understandable. Facing a vastly more experienced and physically intimidating foe, and without the solid grounding of big fight experience to guide him, Grant was practically frozen, like a rabbit in the headlights.

His great return was supposed to be his crossroads fight with Jameel McCline, a crossroads fight that pitted two (relatively) young 'prospects' against one another. This time, it was even worse for Grant. In the very first round, Grant was felled by first meaningful shot of the contest, and sprained his ankle as it got caught on the ropes.

On the ropes literally and metaphorically, Grant was unable to continue, and despite the natural cynicism of hard bitten boxing journalists, it turned out that he was telling the truth.

Since then, Grant has split from, and reunited with Teddy Atlas, his mentor and trainer, the heir to the late Cus D'amato's legacy, and a widely respected trainer. Atlas called into question Grant's mental solidity, his will to succeed, and a welter of minor injuries kept Grant out of the ring for another year.

Now 30 years old, and without a significant win in several years, Grant is at the last chance saloon. A loss to Guinn would signify the likely end of title shot ambitions, and leave him with a modest career as an also ran, a stepping stone for more likely prospects.

For Guinn, Grant represents a big name, a man still remembered for his once promising career.

It's a big imponderable, does Grant still have what it takes to turn in the kind of performance which once saw him KO Jose Ribalta in a single round, or is his psyche still stamped with the crushing blows landed on him by Lewis.

Guinn is in a similar position the one grant was in prior to his loss to Lewis, and the beginning of a downward spiral in his fortunes, but he simply hasn't faced the same level of competition Grant had at that stage.

Grant had already beaten the likes of Al Cole (TKO10), Jorge Luis Gonzalez (TKO1), David Izon (TKO5), Obed Sullivan (TKO9), Ahmad Abdin (WTKO10), Lou Savarese (UD10), and Andrew Golota (TKO10). Though many of these men are considered journeymen or worse now, they were considered a test for Grant at the time, and he passed with (mostly) flying colours, Golota not withstanding.

Dominick Guinn by contrast has nowhere near as comprehensive a list of decent opponents to date. His two most impressive wins are a split decision against human doughboy Garing Lane, and former Cruiserweight Charles hatcher.

This time round at a crossroads fight, it is Grant who is the more experienced fighter. Guinn hasn't shown anything so far which would indicate he has the beating of Grant, whose only two losses have been two huge men like Lewis and McCline.

At only 6' 3" and 219 lbs., it's hard to imagine him beating 6'7" 250lb+ Grant on anything other than points.

For Guinn, who may have some promise, this would seem to be a poor choice of opponent, mentally frail as Grant is, he's physically strong enough for this not to become an issue. Grant has only seemed vulnerable against big hard-hitting men like Golota, not relative pipsqueaks like Guinn. Grant may have lost a couple, but he's not washed up, and hasn't taken any sustained beatings in his career.

Quinn might cause a few problems early on with his rapid-fire combinations, but Grant will be able to overwhelm him with ease. I would go for a very early night, only Grant looked awful in his last bout against Gilbert Martinez.

Looking at Grant's recent form, he has stopped men of Guinn's calibre since the McCline loss, and this should be a cakewalk for him. Once Grant brushes off the cobwebs and starts to find range

Grant TKO6

Gatti V Ward III

I predicted that Gatti would win the last fight by decision, and I was right, but revelations following the fight have since made me less sure about my prediction this time. Much was made of the fact that Ward fought through the last 7 rounds of the fight with a punctured eardrum.

Ward is a brutal and relentless fighter, a real throwback. Lacking finesse or defensive savvy he trades on his greatest qualities, a staggering workrate, a ferocious body attack, an indomitable spirit, a seemingly limitless well to dig from, and an almost inhuman tolerance for pain.

Gatti too was a fighter who used to trade on very similar abilities. Gatti was a fistic artist who painted the canvas with his own blood almost every time he fought. He first came to prominence due to his losing but glorious effort against Oscar De La Hoya, and this seemed to set the tone for his career. That was to change, when he switched trainers, joining future hall-of-famer Buddy McGirt, who adjusted his technique and style of fighting.

In their first fight, despite taking the first three rounds with smart boxing, he was drawn into a war at ring centre, and despite giving as good as he got, lost the fight, after one of the most brutal battles of any era.

After somehow being allowed to continue after a torrid 9th round which saw him out on his feet, Gatti made it to the end of the fight, and was in my opinion unlucky not to get the decision. He was cheated by an inexplicable 10-7 9th for Ward, and an unprompted 1 point deduction, after a low blow which only elicited a warning from the referee. However, the fight was as close as can be.

In the second battle, the tables were turned. This time around, Gatti stuck with the gameplan devised by McGirt, and it paid dividends. Ward started well, but in the third round he walked onto a huge right hand from Gatti as he tried to take the fight to his opponent, and was dropped heavily. Though he made it up, and was to have his moments in the fight, Gatti was a clear winner, controlling the rest of the fight with his boxing skills and counter shots to head and body. Ward was punished whenever he waded forward, and when he did get inside, Gatti's body shots ripped home.

Now the two men are to fight a third time, in a rubber match which will determine which fighter can claim dominance in this historic trilogy.

Personally, I wish that this fight hadn't been made, although it's a great money earner, it's a potential health and career wrecker. Ward was hinting at retirement even before their first fight, and in truth this is the only fight he would have taken following the brutality of their second.

However, as it has been made, and there's nothing I can do prevent it, I turn hypocrite, and the pure boxing fan in me will not allow himself to miss it.

It's a fascinating fight because nobody can be sure Just how much did the first and second fights take out of both men, especially Ward.

Ward took a hell of a beating over the two fights, Gatti less so overall. Though he was shelled heavily in the 9th round of their first tumultuous fight, he fought without being drawn into a street-fight in the 2nd.

One of the most interesting aspects of the 2nd fight for me, was the way in which Gatti (to recount a phrase), was a 'poacher turned gamekeeper.'

Gatti's ferocious body attack for me was the difference in the first fight, the pain and stamina sapping effect of numerous shots to the liver and ribs forcing Gatti to abandon his long range boxing, and stand and trade shots.

Despite the fact that many people have concentrated on Ward's alleged ruptured tympanum in the 2nd fight, I think more credit has to be given to what Gatti did, than the effect it had on Ward. After all, it was Gatti's flashing fists that caused the punctured eardrum.

Ward tried to move more in the 2nd fight, and in the first 3 rounds was finding his way inside Gatti's rangefinding and punishing left jab, and battering ram straight right with regularity. However, as he closed the gap, Gatti unleashed hooks and uppercuts underneath his elbows to the body.

After dropping Ward in the third with a massive right hand following Gatti repeatedly landed withering fusillades of punches, which saw him work the markers from body to head, forcing even iron-man Ward to wince.

From then on, Ward was trading on guts and instinct, as his equilibrium was upset, but let's not take anything away from Gatti, who fought a magnificent fight and kept the pressure on Ward, rather than having to respond to Ward's own pressure.

Only Ward's undying will to find a way to win, even in the final seconds, kept him in the fight. Despite being all over the place in the third after being dropped heavily, and being drilled with countless of those huge right hands which must have made his whole skull ring, he never went down again.

My instincts tell me that Ward is going to be labouring under the punishment he took, not just in the last two fights, but in a career which has been built from bouts of dogged resistance, often to superior firepower and technique. Ward has been stopped before, but never without giving it his all, and pushing his opponent to the limits of their own endurance and courage, and no body can take that amount of punishment without denigrating their physical assets.

Ward is one of the toughest, nay, muleheaded fighters I've ever seen. Even when it looks like there is no way he can possibly win, he never, ever stops giving it his all. It's the philosophy that has brought him victories against overwhelming odds sometimes with mere seconds left on the clock.

Ward is a man who would fight until he shed his last drop of blood in there, and often he's looked like he has, he deserves to be in the hall of fame just on effort alone. Sadly I think that this time round, the tank is going to be just that bit dryer than it was before, and despite Ward's Iron Will, I don't think he's going to find Gatti often enough to take the fight on points, or by stoppage.

Gatti has improved steadily since he undertook a volte-face in tactics as a fighter, eschewing his face forward style under the tutelage of former champ Buddy McGirt. While Gatti isn't exactly Floyd Mayweather, against the static and hittable Ward, he doesn't need to be.

I'm torn between picking Gatti by decision, or by stoppage. My gut instinct has always told me than in a three fight series it would be a case of diminishing returns for Ward, and if he does make it to the end, I think it will be a force of will under a fusillade of punches. Gatti's shots are if anything more thunderous than Ward's, and his shots will gradually break down the onrushing

I'm well aware that Ward still has the power to turn the fight with a single shot, especially as Gatti in truth should have been stopped in the 9th round of their first fight. However, I think the longer Gatti works with McGirt, the more his instincts to brawl have been curbed, and the more he's figuring out how to get to Ward without having to martyr himself in the process.

Ward can't adjust his gameplan too much, he doesn't have the handspeed or the reflexes to do much more than he did last time out, and the difference between the first and second fight was Gatti's tactics, not Ward's.

Gatti will start much like the first fight, boxing behind his jabs and straight rights, but this time around, he will work the body that much earlier. Ward will be in the fight until the middle rounds, but from here on in, Gatti's sharper work, and defensive skills will gradually rack up the points.

Ward will press Gatti as never before, in what is almost certainly the last fight of his career, and this time around, with less left in the tank, even Ward's immense willpower won't be able to force his ageing and battered body to respond. A tired and hurt Ward will probably go down more than once this time, and, putting my neck on the line, without the utmost confidence; Gatti will win as the referee calls a halt on Ward's illustrious career.

Gatti W RSF9.

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Predictions for the Final chapter of Gatti vs. Ward plus Grant vs. Guinn

by Jim "Boxadamus" De Pierro

Michael Grant 38-2 (29 KOs) vs. Dominick Guinn 21-0 (16 KOs)
(HBO undercard)

Whatever faith I had in Michael Grant as a fighter completly went out the window with his last dismal performance against Gilbert Martinez. Grant turned a fight that should have been an utter mismatch inot a fight reminiscent of the fights I used to have as a kid when me and my brother would play rock-em sock-em robots. As far as I am concerned their really isn't any decent excuse for his performance against Gil Martinez. Gil Martinez, for those of you who have never seen Martinez fight and believe me you haven't missed anything if you haven't, is a fat overfed Mexican with the body of a middleweight and about 70 lbs of blubber. At 6' 7" with an 86" reach and far better hand speed and over all skills and physical Grant should have blown Martinez out of the water.

Now I try not to pass overall judgments of a fighter based soley on one fight because its true every fighter has an off night where things just don't go their way and I think to a some extent that is what happened to Grant with Martinez but I think Grant has shown enough flaws over the last few years that its safe to say Grant is a fundamentaly flawed fighter. Grant's problem in my opinion is that he really doesn't have the mindset of a fighter. Don't get me wrong I would never question the big guy's heart and I think he deserves a lot of credit for not giving up on the sport altogether after a pair of humiliating defeats at the hands of Lennox Lewis and Jameel McCline. Most fighters brought up the way Grant was and being fed lucrative HBO contracts and being dubbed the heir apparent would never go back to basics fighting on a club circuit looking to reclaim their past glory. If you don't believe me just ask Prince Naseem Hamed how many fighters dubbed as the next great thing ever make a serious attempt at a comeback after being humiliated. Where I think Grant's mindset is wrong is that he enters the boxing ring looking to win but without any clear fundamental idea of how he is going to accomplish that. The old saying goes nice guys always finish last and Michael Grant is a perfect case in point. Michael Grant doesn't really go in there with the intent to inflict major pain. Now don't get me wrong I am not saying Grant should start being a Tysonesque thug in and out of the ring but I believe the best fighters have to have a certain degree mercilessness from the time of the opening bell until the end of the final round.

Grant has had his ups and downs. He's had strong performances in the past against one time respectable fighters like David Izon, Al Cole and more recently Robert Davis. I find Grant's fairly recent fight with Robert Davis an interesting contrast to his most recent outing against Martinez. I think Davis is clearly a superior fighter to Martinez in just about every respect. If Martinez and Davis ever fought I would bet the farm on Davis yet Grant performed great against Davis and I think its safe to say that if he fought Davis again he would win again in similar fashion. What is it about Martinez who is clearly an inferior fighter to Davis that would give Grant so many problems. Sure it is true that styles make fights and maybe Martinez's sloppiness was harder to deal with than Davis's more disciplined orthodox style of fighting but what I think really accounts for the discrepancy is that other fighters are starting to see Grant's weaknesses and so they know to try and go for the KO against Grant. When Grant gets hit hard he seems confused and shows poor instincts of what to do. This is where a fighters mindset comes into play. Some fighers feel more determined than ever and want to get payback by extracting a pound of flesh while others will look to make intelligent adjustments. Grant does neither of these things he just crumbles and sometimes he wins in spite of this because of his sheer physical size and strength.

I have only seen Dominick Guinn on a few occasions but from what little I have seen of him against limited competition the kid isn't half bad IMO. The only thing that gives me some concern is SD he had with Garing Lane. Garring Lane is a habitual loser so that obviously doesn't speak to well of Guinn if one judge saw Lane as the winner after eight rounds of fighting but then again judges have been known to see strange things that the rest of us just don't see. I have to think that after seeing Grant's last performance against Gilbert Martinez that Guinn had to be licking at his chops. One thing that stands out on Guinn's record when looking at it on www.boxrec is the number of 1st and 2nd round knockouts. Clearly Guinn is no stranger to winning a fight in the first two rounds. Knowing Grant's susceptability to early round knockdowns as displayed in his fights with Golota, Lewis and McCline I think Guinn is going to jump on Grant from the opening bell. This fight should be a barnburner for the few rounds it does last. Look for a lot of Teddy Atlas melodramatics during the course of this fight. The fight will end when Michael Grant hits the canvas for the 5th time. Dominick Guinn will go down once and be hurt at several point in this fight due to being a little to reckless. The real upset is this fight may very well steal the show from the main event.

Dominick Guinn TKO 4 over Michael Grant

Arturo Gatti 35-6 (28 KOs) vs. Micky Ward 38-12 (27 KOs)
(HBO main event)

This fight is being billed as the final chapter but I think this fight is more of an epilogue. As far as I am concerned the story is done and Mickey Ward will end his career on a losing note. I think Ward takes a worse beating than he did in his last fight with Gatti. Arturo Gatti in a shut a shut out. Mickey Ward might win a few sympathy rounds but I predict a thorough Gatti domination. As tempting as it is to say this fight ends in a KO I think those betting the over are likely to walk away richer. I can't imagine Gatti taking more of a beating than he did the first fight and if Ward could take 7 to 8 rounds of pure punishment from Gatti with a busted ear-drum and still last the distance then I don't see how either of these guys could stop the other unless its on cuts or swelling. I think it will be a good fight as far as entertainment goes but it will not be anywhere nearly as compelling as the first match up and will probably be less dramatic than even the second encounter between Gatti and Ward. I really don't have a whole lot say about this fight other than what I wrote in my prediction column for the second Gatti-Ward fight. You can read that column by clicking here

Basically I felt that in order for Ward to win the first time things had to break just right. Remember the first fight took place at the Mohegun Sun which is a venue that is going to be very sympathetic to Ward who hails from neighboring Massachusetts. Another thing to consider is that Cappucino took a point away from Gatti in what I think was a very harsh call. The final straw that broke the camels back was the one judge scoring the 9th round of the first fight 10-7 in favor of Ward instead of 10-8 as it should have been. Take away the point that Cappucino deducted from Gatti and make the 9th round 10-8 instead of 10-7 on that one judges card and Gatti would have won the first fight by a split decision.

Agree? Disagree? Think I'm full of it? E-mail me at boxadamus@surfglobal.net and tell me what you think or post a comment.