“Mexico vs Puerto Rico” is arguably the biggest rivalry in the history of the sport. Tonight that rivalry will etch a new chapter in stone as veteran Puerto Rican warrior Miguel Cotto (40-4, 33KO’s) takes on Mexico’s biggest and fastest rising star, Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez (45-1-1, 32KO’s). Coming into 2015 the world anticipated Mayweather vs Pacquiao. Although that bout didn’t live up to the larger-than-life hype, there’s no question that this showdown will hit the mark. As we countdown the hours, lets take a quick look at “keys to victory”, four critical angles to explore, and a final prediction:
MIGUEL COTTO – KEYS TO VICTORY
For Cotto, the biggest battle he’ll face all night is right between his two ears (his mind). After defeating Geale and Martinez, the addition of Freddie Roach seemed to have been the ultimate shot of confidence needed to elevate his game. Or was it? Truth is, none of us know how confident Cotto truly is, as he hasn’t been tested by a healthy, live body in quite some time. Cotto will need to start fast and furious, setting the tone with a stiff jab and setting a lot of traps. As an orthodox puncher, his key weapon will actually be the left hook. The orthodox stance conceals the ever-present danger that looms behind it. One flush hit could be a difference maker, as Cotto knows how to close the show.
SAUL ALVAREZ – KEYS TO VICTORY
Canelo brings all the tools necessary to gain leverage in this fight. He has the size, the speed, the youth, and oddly enough, in comparison, you’d have to also say the energy. The biggest weapon for Canelo tonight will be the jab. In a cliche’ kinda way, the jab will set up everything he’ll need to pull the curtains late in the bout. If he lands the jab early and often, Cotto will have a difficult time overcoming the reach advantage. If he runs into that problem, he may get desperate. If he gets desperate, he’ll lunge. And when he lunges, as both Mayweather and Pacquiao showed us, BAM! The uppercut can’t miss! A strong jab, solid punch selection and a steady work rate makes a closed case!
FOUR TO EXPLORE – (CRITICAL ANGLES TO WATCH FOR )
TAP or Tapped?: The term “TAP” is reserved solely for talent deemed “Tested And Proven”. When we look at the past decade in the sport, if there’s anyone that fits the description, it’s Cotto. Trouble is, in the process of becoming a ‘proven’ talent, some would argue that the wheels on the Cotto-mobile have loss a bit too much tread, increasing the odds of an inevitable breakdown. We know that he’s ‘proven’, but realistically, is he a little too ‘tested’ at this stage? Bulging eyes, bruised cheeks, and swollen parts have become a staple for Cotto after 14 years in the sport. How does that reconcile in the end? Is he a ‘TAP’ in? Or will it result in him being ‘tapped’ out?
A Golden Jinx?: Oscar De la Hoya has had some rather interesting luck with Golden Boy Promotions. Hopkins hadn’t loss in over a decade. He signed to GBP, and loss twice after one defense. Juan Diaz was undefeated and looking like the ‘next best’. Nate Campbell put a beating on him and he was never the same. Jorge Linares, Kassim Ouma, and Marco Antonio Barrera, among others, would all see the same fate. Fast forward a few years and then you have the mass exodus of fighters who departed by way of Haymon and company (Santa Cruz, etc). Considering this intriguing history, one can’t help but wonder if Canelo has a date with destiny pending as well. Tonight, time will tell….
End of an Era?: Within the next 12 months, fans will watch an entire era close a chapter forever. Not too long ago, Judah, Mosley, Margarito, Cotto, Cintron, Mayweather, and Pacquiao, all sat at the midst of a 147lb welterweight division that stood as deep as any other point in time. While some still earn a Friday night pay check from time to time, Mayweather’s retirement leaves Cotto and Pacquiao as the only true formidable names standing. In the case of Pacquiao, despite a body that’s breaking down, it’s safe to say he has at least one more victory pending to go under his belt. Can we say the same for Cotto? Could a devastating stoppage tonight mark the final time we see him in the ring?
Moment or Momentum?: In the case of Canelo, winning would be a career defining victory against a legendary, first ballot Hall of Famer. For Cotto, it would mean a victory over arguably the best rising star on the Mexican fight scene landscape. Sadly, despite the respect due each man, in the end, only one can win. At the highest level, it all comes down to moments and momentum. For one of these men, that ‘moment’ will be the pain associated with seeing the opponents hand raised. For the other, that point will mark a level of momentum unseen previously. Both moments will be memorable. But only one will carry the talent forward. Stay tuned.
OFFICIAL PREDICTION
Despite all of the breakdowns and fight talk in the media, the reality here is that no one has a remote idea relative to how this bout will play out when the bell rings. The level of subplots and storylines available say all that needs to be said about predicting the outcome of this bout. Will Canelo give Cotto too much respect and allow him to walk out with a points victory based on a non-effective approach? Will Cotto enter weary of Canelo’s power and stick outside, finally achieving the disciplined attack he needs to defeat a better talent? Both scenario’s are possible, but history tells us neither are probable.
Canelo won’t shy away from contact or give Cotto too much space; and Cotto probably won’t be able to stay as disciplined as he needs to remain out of harms way. Cotto’s experience will take him only but so far, as the youth and energy of Canelo will undoubtedly be too much. The reckless element of Canelo’s youth will force him into a compromising position once or twice before the night ends. But we’ve rarely seen him hurt, and have never seen him down. Canelo will have to earn his paycheck in this one, but in the end, he’ll be too much for a veteran who couldn’t even garner the support of his own legendary countryman (Trinidad).
SAUL ‘CANELO’ ALVAREZ via TKO12
(Vivek “Vito” Wallace can be reached at 754.307.7747. He can also be reached at Instagram (@V_Dub_Vito), Twitter (@lefthooklounge1), and Facebook)