Shane Mosley vs. Saul Alvarez prediction

By Vitali Shaposhnikov: When Shane Mosley crossed the ropes to face Manny Pacquiao last year in Las Vegas, some people expected to see an interesting fight. Sure most boxing enthusiasts weren’t kidding themselves by giving Mosley much of a shot at victory, still, his ring experience was the hope for those who did.

Calling Shane’s performance poor would be a fairly strong understatement. Dreadful, appalling, and most importantly disappointing for many fans is what I would call it. Shane did not put up a fight, and it was evident that he gave up on all hope in the early rounds. Was this because Pacquiao was too good, or because Mosley is too old for this game? I think it’s a combination of both.

Later that year I had the opportunity to chat with Mosley for a few minutes, and of course the topic of his future came was the bigger part of our conversation. One thing Shane told me that night came to mind: “Oh I will be back. I need some time off, and then I will be back for another big fight.”

Say what you say, but this is a pretty important fight for Shane. He lost to Manny, but he annihilated Margarito. Every fight is different, and every style can cause potential problems. So what should people expect to see when Shane Mosley faces Saul Alvarez on May 5 as an undercard bout for Mayweather Jr. vs. Cotto event?

Alvarez has shown to be quite a competitor. He is young, the fire to dominate is burning strong, and of course with 39 victories he remains unbeaten. Despite the fact that Alvarez had better competition than many other up and coming champions, Mosley is by far, at whatever stage of his career he might be, the toughest opponent yet. What he brings to the fight, is ability to learn and execute with impressive rhythm, something that only experience can provide.

Alvarez’s perfect opponent is someone big and strong; someone who would want to trade punches and demand a knockout victory. Shane is the complete opposite of that; he moves around and picks his shots carefully. While I can’t really say just how good Saul’s chin is, I think that he likes to fight at his own, comfortable pace. His element must be present; otherwise I feel he would have very unproductive rounds.

My prediction: Saul will keep coming, trying to use his size as a primary means of pressing action. Mosley will most likely use his lateral movement to evade those straight shots, and counter back from angles. I see the fight being about even until mid rounds, at which point Alvarez will likely start showing signs of fatigue. I doubt Mosley could win the fight via a knockout, but I do see Shane claiming the “W” with a solid lead on points.

Article posted on 20.04.2012

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