Does Canelo have a chance against Mayweather?

Saul AlvarezBy Robert Jackson: With Money Mayweather having announced his next fight date to be May 5, 2012 – Cinco de Mayo, a revered date in Mexican history, other than fighting Pacquiao, a suitable fighter to face Mayweather is being sought. Victor Ortiz could be in the running depending on his rematch with Andre Berto, Robert Guerrero has expressed interest in fighting Mayweather and now add to the list one Saul “Canelo” Alvarez.

Canelo Alvarez the latest star of Mexican boxing at 21 has made a name for himself by defeating 39 opponents with no loses and 1 draw. His recent victory over Kermit Cintron represents the best victory of his career albeit Cintron seemed a little bit over trained, and, past it in his last few bouts. Promoted by Golden Boy, Alvarez has been moved carefully having fought many non-descript opponents and of late journeyman fighters – Lovemore N’Dou, Matthew Hatton (brother of Ricky) and Jose Miguel Cotto (brother of Miguel) to name a few.

Canelo’s style can only be described as rough, a finished product in the making. With good instincts and toughness Canelo has fought his way into the fighting public’s imagination and many give him a good chance against Mayweather. Canelo has offered a 150lb catchweight to Mayweather in order to fight him in May, no response to this overture by Mayweather’s team has yet been made. Even at this catchweight, the ‘big boned’ Alvarez could possibly weigh 170lbs on fight night after rehydrating himself, dwarfing Mayweather by a possible 20lbs (Ortiz outweighed Mayweather by 15lbs).

Before discussing whether Canelo has the goods to beat Mayweather let’s look at the politics of such a fight. Canelo is currently the WBC super welterweight champion and has as his mandatory opponent James Kirkland. Kirkland also promoted by Golden Boy Promotions, was a big underdog going into his last fight against Alfredo Angulo and after a 1st round knockdown went on to dominate and stop Angulo in the 6th round. Expectations were that Angulo would win this fight rather easily after Kirkland was defeated by TKO earlier in 2011 by the unheralded Nobuhiro Ishida. Golden Boy was planning a big fight between Angulo and Canelo which went down in smoke after the Kirkland victory. With this in mind it must be stated that Canelo Alvarez has an eventual meeting against Julio Cesar Chavez Jr looming which would be a BIG fight for Mexico and Mexican fight fans; so a loss to Kirkland would diminish the appeal of that fight being made. A fight against Mayweather at a catchweight less that 154lbs might have a lesser effect if Canelo loses, having lost to the P4P king – probably getting outboxed, maybe fans would still look forwards to a Chavez Jr/Canelo matchup.

So, can Canelo prevail against Mayweather?? Most likely not!! Mayweather will take Canelo to school, using boxing skill and savvy, Canelo can expect to get countered all night and most likely embarrassed skill wise. Canelo will have a few moments but total control of such a matchup belongs to Mayweather with his defensive style, versatility and agility. Should Canelo pursue such a bout?? Absolutely! It will give him a huge payday and put the spotlight on him in a BIG event, one more step to him becoming boxing’s next big star.

Article posted on 15.12.2011

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