Marquez Wins by KO.......Don't You Hate It When You're Wrong!

Mayweather vs MarquezBy Paul Strauss: Get used to the idea. When it happens, it's going to make many experts and some odds-makers angry. They're going to hate it, but not because they're unhappy with El Dinamita, or that they feel sorry for Little Floyd. No it will be a matter of pride. They will be disgusted with themselves for failing to glom onto the real possibility of an upset win, let alone the KO of Small Change. Yes, they're going to be mad at themselves and will feel foolish, kind of like they did after Manny easily beat Oscar.

The same type of excuses will be made. In picking Oscar over Manny, they explained their reasoning was correct and their knowledge of the fight game sound. Oscar should have won they still say. He lost only because he didn't have the fire anymore. Or, he lost because he came into the fight drained and at too light of a weight.

After Marquez wins, they will dampen the greatness of his accomplishment by saying it was because the former P4P champ had been away from the game for too long. Or, they might say it was because of the distractions concerning his uncle, father, or possibly the target practice he'd been taking with his armed employees. Regardless, they will not look at the Marquez victory as a demonstration of his great skill, heart and determination..

If you want to become a believer and get on the Marquez band wagon now, take a look at some of his great fights, and in particular note his incredible ability to adapt and change on the fly as the fight progresses. Often times he has had to do so while under great pressure. Even though he just celebrated his 36th birthday, he is still improving as a fighter. He is getting better with age. On the other hand, Mayweather is static. He is as good as he is ever going to get, which obviously is pretty damn good. In fact, he's awesome by anyone's standards. But, there are unanswered questions about him. On the other hand, there aren't any unanswered questions concerning Marquez.

When contemplating the possibility of Marquez KO'ing No Cents, who claims to be innocent until proven guilty, think about the success Marquez has had with disparate styles. His last impressive win came against Juan Diaz, an extreme pressure, high punch volume, left hooking machine. Marquez did as he always does. While on the fly, he studied, he probed, and dissected his opponent, and then heightened his focus and took Diaz out. That was after many thought Diaz was controlling the fight and would eventually wear down the older Marquez.

Juan encountered different problems and concerns with Joel Casamayor. Casamayor is the master craftsman, very elusive, quick and a cagey southpaw (maybe even dirty at times). He is also a great counter puncher. Marquez had to be cautious concerning possible head-butts, elbows, shoulders, as well as having to deal with Casamayor's extensive experience and speed. Marquez knocked him out. The first time anyone had ever done that to El Cepillo. That occurred even though two judges had the fight a draw up until the end.

Everyone knows about his great comeback in the first fight with Pac Man, so no need to reiterate that tremendous feat. But realistically, aren't Mayweather fans and the experts right when they say just as Clint Eastwood's character Dirty Harry said, "A man has got to know his limitations."? Aren't the experts and odds-makers right in thinking that Marquez just doesn't have the physical gifts necessary to tip the pugilistic balance sheet in his favor? Aren't there too many entries on the Pay Me Now side? Further, there is always the list of liabilities, and it seems like they're all on the side of Marquez...... i.e. age (ring age), lack of size and power, too slow, and so forth.

Consequently, if Marquez should indeed pull off the huge upset, it can only be because he landed a lucky punch, right? That's the only way it could be possible! That's his only real hope and prayer. Or, will he win because he will figure out Pocket Change's style and do what's necessary to come away with the victory? Don't leave yet and kindly keep your humpfs to yourself.

Come on, jump on the band wagon and realize that Marquez already knows that Floyd was bothered by Oscar's and Castillo's jabs. Unfortunately, they both failed to use them enough. Juan won't make that same mistake. He will skillfully negate Floyd's reach advantage with good head movement and properly executed head slips forward that will enable him to make Floyd pay. Sure, he will be getting hit, and probably a lot. But, he will use his own hard jab and combinations to the body to offset those moments and to begin the setup process.

Granted Cash & Carry will make Marquez look foolish at times, but it won't bother Marquez. He will continue to feint Floyd into his patented shoulder roll, tucked-in turtle type defense. Juan, over time, will gauge Jr's moves and start catching him with well timed punches as the Little Denomination attempts to spring out of his shell with single shots.

Juan will also use his own check hook on Floyd when Jr. will leap forward with a lead left hook. The Lord of Little Value managed in the past to use his great speed to get away with this tactic, as he did against Corrales. However, like Ricky Hatton, he too drops his right hand a bit (just enough). It will be “bing” instead of “bling” for the Forged Bank Note.

Unquestionably, Floyd will look good. His speed and elusiveness will be showcased over and over again in the fight, and fans will be looking closely at Marquez for signs of quit. There will be none. Instead, Marquez will fight a complete fight, and will keep Floyd honest with hard shots to the body, lead right hands, and combinations. Even if many of the punches are only landing on Floyd's arms, he will be undeterred and will continue to throw them. He will land these shots in both close quarters and from a distance. The damage might not be immediately apparent, but they will have the desired long term effect. Gradually Floyd will be eased out of his game plan a bit and his rhythm will skip a beat. It will be the first chink in his armor.

Marquez won't be suckered either. He will throw his punches to the anticipated locations. He will be the quarterback leading his receiver. Early on in the fight, he also will jab to Floyd's chest. He will surprise Floyd by countering Floyd's counters, instead of going on the defensive like many of Floyd's previous opponents.

Floyd is also used to having the upper hand with his blinding speed, which not only causes the desired physical damage, but also flusters his opponents. That will not happen with Marquez. Instead, Marquez will answer, and always with combinations. When Floyd's counters fail to cause the desired effect, it too will take Floyd a bit more out of his rhythm and game plan.

Marquez is a master at managing distance, and he will also shock Floyd when he demonstrates the ability to reach him with long distance punches, not unlike Juan did against Casamayor. Floyd will try to occasionally change tactics and try to get inside. One of his favorite tactics is to cleverly use his forearm or elbow to elevate his opponent's chin just enough so he can shoot over his right. Floyd will be perplexed though when he discovers Marquez will not let him in close. It will be another skip in the beat.

There's no doubt Floyd will undoubtedly make Juan look bad. He will appear bigger, faster, and be harder to hit. He will move in and out of range, scoring damaging shots as he does so. Up to this point, Mayweather fans, the experts and odds-makers will be comfortable with their decision to pick Floyd to win. Things might even look bleak for the Mexican warrior. By this time, he will have missed his target with a lot of punches, and he will be bruised and possibly even cut.

However, the fight will dramatically turn in his favor. Floyd will foolishly think he can take Marquez out. He will start to set down on his punches, and try to close in for the kill. His confidence will reminiscent of Jersey Joe Walcott's comment when he said if he couldn't beat Rocky Marciano he would retire. Archie Moore felt the same way about Rocky. The old Mongoose knew he could knock out anyone he could hit, and Rocky appeared easy to hit. Well, Archie knocked Rocky down, but ended up getting KO'd himself.

Granted, there's no comparing the styles or hitting power of Rocky and Juan, but one can certainly compare their determination, strength and ability to win when all appears lost. In fact, it seems they thrive on it! That's the real key.

In the end it won't make any difference how good Floyd looks. When he confidently believes he has Juan beaten and moves in for the kill, he is going to run into Juan's punches. He will be hurt, and will instinctively try to get out of range, but will be unable to escape. Just that fast, the course of the fight will change, and the end will be near.

Despite the fact that Marquez will have been beaten up and punished, he will still get to Floyd, and those unanswered questions about Floyd will be answered. Marquez will once again be vying with Manny for best P4P. Money, for the first time, will be experiencing a foreign program to him called Lay-a-Way, which might cause him to re-retire to spend more quality time with his father. . . . .

Article posted on 08.09.2009

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