Kotelnik / Khan - The Handicappers Thread

By Erik Schaffer - Andreas Kotelnik (31-2-1 with 13 ko's) takes on Amir Khan (20-1 with 15 ko's) at the M.E.N. Arena in Manchester, England on Saturday. As always, I will talk about the betting line, give an analysis and a prediction.

Amir Khan will step into the ring this Saturday in his first major title fight as just under a 2-1 favorite. Surprised? Andreas Kotelnik does have the much better resume in this fight.. He has a close SD loss and draw with former WBA 140 pound champ Souleymane M'baye. He also has a close UD loss to former WBC 140 pound champ Junior Witter. Kotelnik's two biggest wins are when he won the WBA 140 pound title vs. unbeaten Gavin Rees and he also had a tough SD win when defending his title vs. top contender Marcos Maidana. I think we all just learned how tough and powerful Maidana is after his ko win over Victor Ortiz. The Amir Khan resume really has nothing to it. In his two biggest fights he was ko'd by Breidis Prescott and he beat an old version of Marco Antonio Barrera by tko. I don't feel the need to mention the other wins by Khan. So why is Khan the favorite you ask?

I will tell you.

First lets look at the total posted for this fight. 9.5 rounds with the over being just under a 2-1 favorite. Looks like it could be a long fight. Do you really want to be in a long fight with Khan? I don't think so. Khan will not be in the ring with a heavy hitter like Prescott this Saturday and that will really favor Khan in this fight. I know Kotelnik is very skilled with a great chin and stamina. Yet he lacks the one thing it takes to beat Khan, which is power. Its not work rate that gets to Khan. Its power. Kotelnik likes to try and out skill his opponent and that will be his down fall vs. Khan.

At 5'10 Amir Khan brings it all to the ring. Blazing speed with power punches coming from all angles. Ask his new trainer about Khan's speed.... You have to like Khan's chances to beat anyone at 140 pounds who doesn't have major power, and Kotelnik is one of those fighters. I would even favor Khan over fighters with last names of Bradley, Campbell and Holt. I dont see them having the power to beat Khan either. Yes I think the tools of Khan are that good to beat those fighters. Their will be no fighters with last names of Prescott, Maidana or Pacquiao in the ring this Saturday and those are the fighters that can give problems to Khan. I see this fight playing out as an easy win for Khan by wide UD or late KO. Remember styles make fights and Khan has the tools to win this one.

So thats it. Once again short and sweet.

Side note : For those of you who want a final result play with Khan my suggestion would be must win by decision, which would be a dog play. That is for players who don't want to lay 2-1. But just quote me on Khan wins. Thanks for reading and good luck.

Article posted on 17.07.2009

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