Ricky Hatton - Paulie Malignaggi - The Handicappers Thread

19.11.08 - By Erik Schaffer - Here we go again with another installment of The Handicappers Thread as we take a look at the big 140 pound fight taking place this Saturday night on November 22 between Ricky Hatton and Paulie Malignaggi, which is being held at MGM Grand in Las Vegas, Nevada. As always I will discuss the betting line, analyze the fight and give a prediction. So lets get to it..

As I write this article Ricky Hatton is a -260 favorite to beat Paulie Malignaggi this Saturday night. Both fighters come into the fight with only 1 loss and both of them lost to great fighters. Clearly Hatton doesn't belong at 147 pounds after his close decision win over Luis Collazo and KO loss to Floyd Mayweather. Ricky Hatton is back where he belongs at 140 pounds fresh of his UD win over Juan Luzcano, which is part of the reason why he is -260 for this fight. Malignaggi also had no business being in the ring with the fighter who beat him. Malignaggi was not ready for Miguel Cotto that night and the power of Cotto at 140 was scary. Yes Cotto was down in 2 fights at 140, but came back to win both by KO and stayed unbeaten in that weight class. But what happened to Paulie in his last 2 fights? First a close decision win over Herman Ngoudjo, who was a 16-1 fighter at the time and was expected to clearly lose. Then came a rematch with Lovemore N'dou, who Paulie beat by wide UD in their first fight. It seems the boxing world is split on who really won the last 2 Malignaggi fights, which is the main reason why Ricky Hatton comes into Saturday nights fight as the big -260 favorite against a fighter who is very capable of beating him. What If Paulie would of easily won his last 2 fights as the big favorite that he was? What If he would of beaten N'dou the way he did the first time? We saw what Paulie can do when he is motivated like he was in that first N'dou fight. But for whatever reason, whether it was his hand, hair or lack of motivation we had a close fight in the N'dou rematch that night. And that close fight gives us value with Paulie in this fight. Had Paulie won another UD over N'dou we would have Hatton around -160 for this fight. How many times have we seen 2 close to even fighters share a card and the one who looks better becomes the big favorite when the winners meet each other in their very next fight. Well enough about the odds for now. Lets analyze this fight.

First thing you have to know is that Ricky Hatton will not bully and hurt Paulie Malignaggi the way Miguel Cotto did. Cotto's power at 140 was unreal and unfair. Yes Hatton will be the much stronger fighter in the ring Saturday night, but he wont bring the same power Cotto brought. Paulie was not able to get away from Cotto for most of that night and I thought he stood in front of Cotto during the times he could of gotten away. That fight was in Brooklyn, NY, which is the home of Paulie Malignaggi and he didn't want to look like a runner in his first big fight in his hometown or anywhere else for that matter. This fight is a different situation. I see Paulie boxing, staying away from Hatton and being able to utilize his game plan. I also see Paulie landing more shots then Hatton and that is due to Hatton's face first defense. I know Paulie gets hit to many times for a slick and weak fighter, but besides the Cotto fight we have never seen him hurt. Everybody wants to talk about Paulie's lack of power, but nobody talks to much about his speed and chin. Ricky Hatton is a good fighter, but he has been in the right place at the right time for most of his career. He fought an older version of Kostya Tszyu who was way past his prime and stood right in front of him. Hatton's other big win was vs. an old Jose Luis Castillo who had never done anything at 140 pounds. Well on November 22 it will be Paulie Malignaggi who is in the right place at the right time, which leads me into my prediction.

The total in this fight is 11.5 rounds -330 over, which means without a TKO because of a cut we should race to a 12 round fight result. My prediction in this fight is Paulie Malignaggi must win by decision, which will pay around 4-1.

The last Handicappers Thread was a prediction win with Joe Calzaghe beating Roy Jones on a must win by decision final result bet. Our record is 2-0.

Article posted on 19.11.2008

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