Tony Liang’s first boxing prediction thread!

04.09.08 - Hi ESB addicts. Sitting at home, looking at some up and coming fights, I was debating with myself about the fights to look for a line to bet on. I thought to myself why not share it with others, right? Yep, just for the hell of it. Well here it goes.

If you are a fan of boxing it is fairly easy to pick the winners on most of the fights, right? Most boasters will post their predictions and brag about how they always pick winners even though they are predicting on 5-1 faves. But when money is involved, it becomes a completely different ball game. Despite what the boasters say, especially the ones who come on threads and say “I told you so” after the fight, it is hard to beat the sports book’s odds. I have learned it in the hard way. Ever since my good friend Eric Schaffer (Stuck in the moment) introduced me to boxing betting I have grown to a bigger boxing fan. I have gotten pretty good at analyzing fighters and capitalizing on Vega’s mistakes. Vegas gets the line right most of time, and if they are wrong it will not hurt them, considering they also take a huge chunk of money in the middle in every single line, which makes it a grueling uphill and risky battle for betters who try to seek a profit in boxing. The key of success is to be selective and not be tempted to bet on every fight that has a line on it. If you can’t fight off the temptation then bet small for learning experience. I have found out that as long as there is some money on the line I would focus more on the details of the match for future bets on those fighters.

Like I have mentioned earlier…. Vegas do make mistakes or lay traps for betters. And if you are patient enough and have done your research, you will know when to make a move. I have beaten the odds on Vazquez vs. Marquez II and III, Casamayor vs. Corrales, Paul Williams vs. Margarito, Margarito vs. Cotto by KO, the dogs that I have won. This Friday, I believe Vegas have either messed up or perhaps they are setting a trap for the public on the Friday night battle, Antonio Demarco vs. Jose Reyes. The line is – 175 for Demarco and +145 for Jose Reyes. At the first glimpse of the two fighters’ records, you would think that the odds are right with Demarco 18(13kos) – 1 who only lost one time and Reyes 23(8kos) – 4 having 4 losses in his record. If you take a closer look at their resumes, it is clear as day that Reyes has the better resume and fought the better competition. The round props are 9.5 -260 for the over and +200 for the under suggested by the Vegas who think it is going to be full 10 rounds, while in my opinion the slicker and more experienced Reyes should be the favors. After confirming the fighters’ styles and have a close look at how the fighters have won their fights with YouTube, you should be able to make a logical decision.

For this up and coming fight, I have taken Reyes at a decent price. After spending some time researching on both fighters, I would like to give Reyes the edge. I think he is craftier with faster hands. One of his favorite punches is the lead left hook. Not many boxers are quick enough to lead with this punch. I have seen Reye sneaking it in against solid fighters almost at will. He also has better footwork, resume, experience and work rate which I think will overtake the greener Demarco’s size, and power despite the fact that he seems to be lacking of punching power. Both fighters have got above decent defense. I have seen both fighters have showed sturdy chins in spite of getting rocked by counters. Both fighters have never been kayoed, but given that Demarco has only been to the 10th round once and looked faded in the later round, I would have to chance it with the more experienced Reyes. I wouldn’t be surprised if Reyes gets a late stoppage. I have to admit that the dangerous Demarco has the advantage by cramping down his 5’10 frame into 135lbs. He definitely has the size and strength by the time of the fight night. That’s why I have to take Demarco as something of a concern. I suspect that the Vegas are trying to set the trap based on the fact that Reyes has been knocked down by smaller guys. However, taking Reyes’ several wins against opponents who are 5’9 after the knock down into consideration, I don’t think Demarco shouldn’t be a surprise for Reyes. Well, this is my prediction. And if you like it, request it. Now wish me luck that I don’t get to eat crow on my first prediction article.

Thanks for reading.

Article posted on 04.09.2008

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