By Steve Trellert

With Experience (particularly recent), Stamina, and Mental Toughness favoring Lennox Lewis, it would seem easy to conclude Iron Mike as a write-off this Saturday night, right? Wrong! If Tyson is able to land his patented haymaker, the above three advantages will end up alongside last week's article for Monday morning back alley pickup by the sanitation department. This week we take a look at Lennox Lewis and Mike Tyson in terms of their offensive and defensive capabilities. We shall start with the former.

Offense

-Mike Tyson: Strength
It is a rarity to find a fighter who packs dynamite in both hands, and Mike Tyson is one of them. Both the left and the right hand can end the fight on a moment's notice. Check out the woman on Brad Pitt's arm in the first row for a millisecond, and you may miss the end. Whether overhand or via hooks both can land the coupe de gras. Another rarity in boxing is a fighter who can throw a good uppercut. Here too Tyson excels. Additionally, Tyson's footwork is relatively decent as he rarely, if ever, finds himself cornered or in an awkward position, and he generally cuts off the ring well. His hand speed has seemingly been improving since the horrible performance against Frans Botha as he demonstrated against 'Super' Brian Nielson, but it has diminished since his prime by a step.

-Mike Tyson: Weakness
Since the glory days with Cus D'amato and Kevin Rooney we have seen a systematic decline in Mike's overall offensive ability. Whereas he once used strategy to destroy the opposition, now he just looks for the knockout punch. Instead of breaking down his opponent he now fights with an almost desperate desire to end the fight as soon as possible. The lunge and miss occurred so often against Botha that it verged on pathetic. After a period of virtual extinction, the once prevalent combinations seemed to return against Nielson, but that has been the recent exception rather than the rule. The jury is basically still out on whether Tyson can pull together a game plan beyond the 'I'll knock him out' and stick to it.

-Lennox Lewis: strength
In terms of strategy Lennox has a considerable advantage. Watch the David Tua or second Hasim Rahman fight and you will see a gameplan in action that plays to his own strength as well as his opponent's weaknesses. Against a perceived munchkin though complacency arises and Lewis sometimes backflats. With strategy fine, but in straight arsenal I have my doubts with Lewis vis-à-vis Tyson. I would argue that Lewis has at least as good of a right hand as Tyson, or perhaps even slightly better as Lewis tends to over rely on it and therefore magnifies it. Lewis' left hand provides a good strong jab, something Tyson is somewhat devoid of, but Tyson has a power advantage with the southpaw swing (hook). Similarly, Lennox has developed a decent uppercut under the tenure of trainer Emanuel Steward but it is less profound than Tyson's and Mike has it in both hands where Lennox really only has it in the right. In terms of overall arsenal, Tyson must be given the slight edge. Does Lewis' advantage in jab or strategy overcome the arsenal disadvantage? Hard to say. More on that later.

Defense

-Lennox Lewis
We start with Lennox Lewis due to one critical reason: chin, chiny chin chin. Hasim Rahman and Oliver McCall both demonstrated that Lewis can go down like a sack of potatoes with one blow. This is of great concern, especially in front of a man with as much devastating power as Iron Mike. The bad news for Lewis is that Tyson is probably already envisioning a bulls eye on his chin. The good news for Lewis is that many others have as well and almost unanimously failed. Lewis' defense seems suspect not only with his chin but also in going backwards where he seems a bit awkward when forced to retreat (similar to Wladimir Klitschko). The awkwardness reflects a certain degree of uncertainty in Lewis, as he sometimes seems unsure what to do. This can work to Tyson's advantage. Despite these concerns it must be stated that Lewis somehow almost never gets into serious trouble. The vulnerability of his chin is undeniable but it might not be quite as suspect as many assume. Lewis took hard shots from Ray Mercer and others and handled it well. Even in the Rahman fight he lost, Lewis took a shot on the chin early in the fifth round before he was hit with the knockout blow and handled it well. So a less than perfect shot may not do it and 'perfect' may be more difficult to come by (as many defeated opponents would agree) than thought.

-Mike Tyson
Whereas Lewis can get knocked out at anytime (even if way ahead on points), Tyson is very durable. In both losses against Buster Douglas and Evander Holyfield he had to be worn down over numerous rounds with numerous power punches. It will likely take Lewis time to systematically break Tyson down. Tyson's chin is far more obstinate than Lewis' and he also retreats in a much less awkward manner. Where Tyson's defense is questionable is in terms of his ability to avoid punches thrown at him. Whereas Tyson of old ducked and moved to diminish the damage his opponent could inflict, the current Tyson's head movement has declined to the point where it barely occurs. Now this could be due to a justified contempt for his recent opponents, but if so it already seems to have developed into a particularly bad habit that could cost him before a true knockout puncher. If Lewis can land his combinations at will, a durable chin may only postpone the inevitable. Nevertheless, overall Tyson does have the advantage in terms of defense but the difficulties of getting a good shot against a focused Lewis may be formidable while Lewis getting power shots on Tyson may not. Lewis' reach advantage is a considerable advantage in this scenario. Now many claim the reach advantage irrelevant as Tyson has a history of fighting particularly well against tall fighter's vis-à-vis short. This may seem true, but is it a potential misconception when you consider the quality of those tall fighters he fought versus the short (same height as Tyson) fighter that was the best of his generation among heavyweights in Evander Holyfield? Or that uniquely inspired short fighter in Buster Douglas on that night in Tokyo?

Keys to Victory

There are two existing blueprints to defeating Iron Mike. First is slugging a la Evander but that would be suicide for Lennox due to his brittle chin. The second is the Buster jackhammer jab, which Lewis should utilize. The only problem here is the fact that Lewis will likely have to increase the normal activity rate of his jab, which could mean fatigue may become more of a factor. Nonetheless it is the logical route, for Lewis the jab will likely be the decisive factor. Lewis will have to use it with authority to keep Tyson off of him just as Buster did. Now Buster still ended up knocked down despite his efforts, but he did not have the height and reach advantage of Lennox. This should work to Lewis' advantage and significantly lower his percentage chance of getting nailed to the floor.

For Tyson the key is his head movement. If Mike remains stationary he will likely suffer a battering before Lewis' heavy jab and right hand (remember David Tua?). He will never get through the jab if he is eating leather and combinations all night, and remember that Lewis' straight jab will likely hit the target before Tyson's hooks can arrive. Additionally, head movement will allow Tyson to come at Lewis through more unconventional angles that may enhance his chance of landing the big shot. Another potential strategy for Tyson, though highly unlikely to be used, is to use Lewis' other main weakness (besides the chin) against him. That would be to lull him into a false sense of security. I think Lewis may be at his most vulnerable at a time when he thinks victory will come easy. For instance, if Tyson comes out of his corner passively instead of doing the expected and charging at Lewis, this may startle Lewis psychologically and force him to be aggressive which is contrary to Lewis' true nature as a counter puncher. It would also likely take Lewis out of his game plan and throw a monkey wrench into the equation. Of course this could prove awkward for Tyson as well as Lewis as Mike is naturally assertive, but it still creates food for thought and an interesting, if unlikely, scenario.

Conclusion

Despite Lewis' substantially inferior chin and marginally inferior offensive capabilities, Lewis is still the hardest puncher and arsenal carrier Tyson has ever faced. Additionally Lewis has a mental advantage over Tyson in terms of strategy and game plan aided by trainer Emanuel Steward. Tyson is unlikely to have a plan beyond looking for a knockout. Tyson without a plan 'b' will result in adversity (he is fighting the world champion so adversity is likely to arise), and we all know how well he handles that of late! The fight should come down to who uses their key to victory more proficiently. Lennox with his jab, or Tyson with his head movement. Lennox's superior corner and ring intelligence should place the advantage on his side, but if Tyson rejuvenates himself he may be knocking out more than the rust off of himself. No result outside of a Tyson decision would surprise me in this fight. I could see either fighter knocking out the other in the first round. But I suspect Tyson's lack of head movement will continue allowing Lewis' jab to predominate. Despite occasional bouts of adversity for Lennox in which he will try to tie up Tyson in moments of peril. I see Tyson being too easy to hit and slowly being worn down by Lewis' reach and jab. If a disqualification does not occur, I see Lewis wearing down Tyson through attrition in a tense fight that will end in round nine. For the sake of boxing and the public, I hope neither Mr. Lazy nor the Loon is spotted on Saturday night. If they are not we may actually witness not only a great fight, but also the perfect springboard for the next generation waiting backstage for their prompt. Keep your fingers crossed.

With the Lennox Lewis-Mike Tyson Heavyweight Superfight before us it is now time to put down the teacup and chess pieces and leave ‘Boobies and Brawls’ nightclub behind. Barring any arrival of the worst aspects of either fighter, hence the title, we may actually get to see one heck of a fight. If this is the case an analysis is due. In this and the following week we shall take a look at five critical areas of comparison between these two boxing behemoths: Experience, Stamina, Mental Toughness/Heart, Offense, and Defense. The latter two shall be observed next week.

Experience:

With both fighters garnering over a decade of professional experience it would seem moot to make a comparison, not so. After Mike Tyson’s second loss to Evander Holyfield in June 1997, both he and Lennox Lewis took very different paths. Lennox has fought and defeated numerous true top ten contenders in Evander Holyfield (twice really), Hasim Rahman, Michael Grant, David Tua and Andrew Golota. Only three secondary fighters in Shannon Briggs, Zelkjo Mavrovic and Franz Botha were fought. Mike Tyson on the other hand avoided top ten opposition like the plague and fought only secondary fighters in Franz Botha, Julius Francis, Orlin Norris, Lou Savarese and Brian Nielson. It could be argued Andrew Golota was a marginal top ten at the time but he had already been defeated by Lewis and Grant in the interval and won an unconvincing victory over Orlin Norris. Mike Tyson never came near a serious threat and always proclaimed he needed ‘two more fights’ before facing Lennox Lewis. Now suddenly Mike is ready? Not likely! With only six fights in five years against questionable opposition in comparison to Lewis’ 10 fights against primarily elite opposition, it is quite obvious Lennox has the experience edge.

Now some may claim that recent experience is of little importance as Mike has been there before. He knows how to adjust to the ‘big fight’. Is age a factor? Nominal age does not as Tyson is younger than Lewis. How about ‘real age?’ After all, some fighters are washed up much earlier than others. Is Mike prematurely aged in terms of athletic ability? It is obvious that his skill have diminished over the last decade but is it age related or rust? The jury here is still largely uncertain as the progression has not been a steady decline. In fact it could very easily be argued that Tyson has become progressively better since the Franz Botha fight at least in terms of handspeed. This would seem to suggest rust rather than age related decline as the primary suspect. So under the presumption that Mike Tyson will attempt to revamp himself and continue to improve and be more reminiscent of his old efficient self (weight is currently down as well reflecting a greater degree of discipline), does this eliminate Lewis’ more recent experience advantage? No, for two reason’s. One is the fact that the gap Mike has to adapt to is too large. Going from Brian Nielson in front of him to Lennox Lewis will likely provide such a shock that Tyson will have to be the one to adapt to Lewis rather than the expected opposite. Whereas most expect Tyson to be at his most dangerous in round one, he may in fact be at his most vulnerable. In his most recent fights Mike Tyson has barely had a real punch thrown at him never mind one coming from a man who can pack a serious wallop. Lennox’s heavy jab and long reach will likely come as a surprise as Tyson will have to go through some heavy artillery to get to the core. This in addition to Tyson’s now limited head movement means he may be an easy target for Lennox’s potent arsenal. The fact that Tyson has ‘been there’ will allow him a greater ability to adapt than a green fighter, but it will still create difficulties in the early going. The second reason is that other element of experience, legacy. Despite the frequent romanticization of Tyson’s glory years in the late 1980’s, the fact of the matter is that Lennox Lewis is, and has been, the better fighter historically. How do we know this?

Surprisingly overlooked is the fact that both fighters have fought many of the same opposition. We actually have a large sample size within which we can make a comparison.

The above chart clearly indicates Lewis’ supremacy against the same opposition as he had superior results against five of the seven fighters. Tyson had supremacy only against Britain’s beloved Frank Bruno (note: One could argue Lewis had supremacy over Tony Tucker as well since he knocked him down twice unlike Tyson). If the gap was but one or two, one could dismiss this as a ‘styles make fights’ anomaly, but here there is a four-fighter advantage which reflects more of a pattern. In terms of experience and head to head comparison’s, Lennox Lewis has the advantage.

Stamina

It seems a forgone conclusion that Lennox Lewis should have the advantage here as he has fought the distance a number of times of late while Tyson has not. Most seem to see Tyson fading and being vulnerable after the sixth round. Lewis’ advantage here may not be quite as large as many suspect and for good reason. The first is the fact that stamina largely depends on the training before a fight. Tyson’s weight, as previously mentioned, has been down for awhile which implies he is training harder than usual. This should expand his stamina. Additionally, Tyson’s last fight against Brian Nielson went a solid seven rounds in which he was pretty well punching continuously. He did not seem anywhere winded enough to make us think he was going to fall apart. Additionally, Mike (unless in a disqualification) has never lost a fight due to exhaustion. He has demonstrated a tremendous amount of willpower in adversity as the Douglas fight and first Holyfield fight demonstrate. Mike loses by ‘punching’ attrition rather than fatigue.

Lewis on the other hand is not devoid of any fatigue. There have been occurrences of slowdown usually around round nine. This may present an opportunity for Tyson in the later rounds but nevertheless Lewis’ recent distance experience and relative rarity of tiredness should give him the advantage (though slighter than suspected) here.

Mental Toughness/Heart

Usually Human beings tend to become more stable with age but in Mike Tyson’s case the reverse seems to be true. Irrespective of occurrences outside of the ring it is plain that inside the ring Tyson seems less able to handle adversity as he has in the past. The Holyfield ear episode, late foul on Orlin Norris causing a no-contest, Botha arm-twisting and Savarese referee assault all point to Tyson as a loose cannon when things do not go his way. All of these episodes occurred in the last five years and there is little reason to think it would not happen again. Tyson is a frail soul. In the event his mental durability has increased Mike has demonstrated innumerable times his ability to fight to the end. Which Tyson will show up? Who knows! Nevertheless, the very fact that the ‘Loon is likely’ should give Lennox Lewis a wide advantage in this department, but hold on a minute.

Like Tyson, Lennox Lewis is his own worst enemy as demonstrated by his two embarrassing knockout losses to Oliver McCall and Hasim Rahman. While Mike Tyson’s mental weakness stems from insecurity, Lewis’ derives from arrogance. Against Rahman, Lewis contemptuously kept his hands low and fought as if the guy before him was Joey Buttafouco. Lewis clearly did not take the opposition seriously and allowed himself to be vulnerable. The knockout punch was delivered by a guy who had all day to wind it up and let it go as Lewis stood there against the ropes with his hands down by his waist. Against Oliver McCall Lewis decided he could trade a right hand shot with the Atomic Bull. The bull got there first. A measured Lewis would never have allowed such a powerful puncher the opportunity, ask David Tua. Despite the justified criticism hurled at Lewis for his complacency, it must be stated that whenever Lewis felt the opposition a true threat he arrived at his peak. Razor Ruddock, Andrew Golota, David Tua, Tommy Morrison, Hasim Rahman II and Evander Holyfield were all regarded to be serious threats to Lennox Lewis and he dominated them. Against Hasim Rahman, Oliver McCall, Zelkjo Mavrovic, and Shannon Briggs he was expected to win easy and he struggled. The perception of threat is Lennox Lewis’ motivation. Is he thinking Tyson is spent shadow of his former self who will be easy meat? Or does he see him as a serious threat who can put him on the canvas for the third and maybe last time? Chances are more likely the latter as he has wanted this fight for ten years and has seen it as his crowning achievement. Lewis is very likely to be highly motivated and therefore at his best. This should make him very difficult to defeat.

Finally at question is Lewis’ heart. For years and even now Lewis still takes heat for not taking risks or brawling. Is this an indication of a lack of heart? No, in fact it is an indication of intelligence. Why should one brawl if one does not have to and risk permanent brain damage? To entertain the fans that could largely care less about you after you have exited the limelight? I think not! One should only brawl if one has too. Does Lewis have the heart to pull through a situation where he has to make a gut check? The answer here is yes to anyone who witnessed Lennox Lewis fight Ray Mercer. Mr.Merciless fought Lewis tooth and nail and gave him no quarter. Lennox was forced to brawl and he performed admirably at it. Don’t believe me? Look at Lennox Lewis’ face after that fight and the conclusion becomes self-evident. Lennox Lewis most definitely has heart. With Lewis motivated and adversity for both a likely scenario sometime during the fight, Mr.Loon is much more likely to arise than a de-motivated Mr.Lazy. Hence advantage Lewis.

At their worst, Lennox Lewis and Mike Tyson have become ‘Mr. Lazy and the Loon’ which usually results in their defeat. The first one to demonstrate either of those tendencies will likely end up on the canvas without his hand being raised in the air (its hard to raise your hands in handcuffs), and leave with a legacy greatly diminished. Of course if neither alter ego’s arise we may have to take a look at catapult and fortress. Lewis and Tyson, Offence and Defense, next week.