Champs Corner

By Ron "Champ" Miller

26.04 - Hello fight fans!!!!!! I got a "lock" for you this weekend. But before mortgaging the house or dipping into the kid's college fund, read on.

When I first started this column, I concentrated more on the "gambling", betting aspect on it. I seemed to have shifted to more opinion. I have not been "pulling the trigger" when I should have. No real reason's I guess. With my background and connections, I will try to share some picks and thoughts with you in the future.

In the past few months, I have predicted the outcome correctly on many events, but of course I had no money on it. And of course it came in. It always seems too, right? Well, this week, I'm putting a big bet in. And I feel pretty good about it.

Now before you call your "man", hear me out. We all know sports wagering is a gamble. There is no "locks", rather only probability and chance. I believe in making a few "big" bets, rather than "grind it out". Meaning making smaller, daily bets. I feel that probability will catch up with you, quicker. Some guys who bet everyday, lose. This is not to say that you will never lose when you "pick your spots", rather you have a better chance in the long run. That's just me though. I see something I like, I go for it.

This is not to mean I put the mortgage, car payment, savings/checking accounts or maxing out the credit cards. I don't bet with money I don't have, rather I bet with what I can afford to lose. I don't bet "scared", as scared money is lost money. Discipline and self control are the key's here. You must also make it clear in your head that once you bet, that money is gone. If you win, its a plus.

Luck does play a factor, no doubt. But doing your homework helps. We have all been either burned by the half pt, bad call, last second basket, pick or field goal. Getting "backdoored" or our "team", sits on the ball, or plays not to lose (which means not playing to win). I have stories as you do. But let's not forget about our wins, when the ball bounced our way. It happens.

Even the pros only win about 60 percent of their games. So an average joe like you or I would probably be closer to 50 percent. Don't believe in "hacks" saying they are over 80 percent. This is not true, or even possible. Not over the long haul. If anything this may be for a day or two, if that. It's all about consistancy. Again, I don't like to bet every day, rather I pick my spots. But that's me. You have to decide what you want to do. Just remember that the more you bet, the more you will probably lose.

Boxing is a tricky proposition to bet on. The odds are horrible(laying 3-5 dollars to win 1, or worse yet betting to win by decision or knockout when ANYTHING can happen just because you get slightly better odds). Look for value. This doesn't mean betting every underdog, but like other sports, does that "puppy" have a chance to win? Bet with your head, not your heart.There is subjective judging, so always keep that in mind. I have been burned with a "bad" decision or two, but I have also "stole" a fight or two. Buyer beware, is all I can say.

Horseracing is another tough game. The odds can be better than your usual 11/10, but you really have to know your jockeys, owners, trainers, track/turf conditions,breeding, medication and many other factors. I know alot of people who are "pony" players, but are terrible handicappers. Be wary of the guy who has been playing horses since he was a kid. The problem lies in the fact there are 100's of races daily. You must have discipline. You can't bet every race. You must pick your spots or horses. The only good thing about horsebetting, is that you can bet $1 and win $100-$1000. You won't get those kind of odds with the Cincinnati Bengals winning the Superbowl. You would have to bet a 6-10 team parlay to for odds like that. Just be careful. And stay away from harness racing!!!

When laying or taking pts, think like this. If you are getting pts, can your team win the game outright? If not, rethink your bet. Betting on bad teams that are getting a ton of points, is stupid. There is a reason they are getting those pts. They are a bad team!!!! I love taking pts, but only do so when I can answer those questions. I am not a chalk player by any means. I don't like laying 2 touchdowns, no matter who I am playing. Also keep in mind that these players don't care if they win by 1 pt or 40. Be careful betting on college sports. The kid's don't always go all out, as you might think they do. Running up scores isn't as important as it once was with the complicated BCS. Think what you are doing. Don't bet on a team because you attended college there or because you hate them. Be smart!!!

One last thought. ALWAYS bet against the public!! You will win more. Remember Vegas wasn't built on losers. I would rather be on the side of the book than the public. If I am with the public, I will reconsider my bet, or not bet at all. It's that crucial to me. The public can ruin a good thing, no doubt. Of course they will be right. But they will be more wrong, so take this into consideration. If you see a line drastic line movement, take a look at the other side. The public are suckers for "chalk" or favorites. It's all about value. Look at "public" teams. Teams that are familiar to them. They are usually overpriced or overvalued. You may get an extra pt or two, which is crucial in football.

Also keep in mind that streaks occur. I remember going 11-0 in hoops one yr, before finishing 14-3. But I also remember going 0-11, when I couldn't pick a game to save my life. Again notice the theme here. Everything equals out at the end. NO ONE will win all their bets or lose them. It just seems that way.

Las Vegas wasn't built on winners. Look around. Those monuments and buildings are built with your money. My friend even has a whole floor dedicated to himself at the Mirage, thanks to his losing bets!!! While sports betting is better than slots, some table games, and you have "longer action",it is still a gamble. Do not forget that. We can overanalyze("study long, study wrong") or just talk ourselves out of a play. I sometimes go on "hunches", gut instincts or just a "feeling". I sometimes can't explain it, rather saying "I knew that would happen, don't know how or why, but it just felt right". Then on the other hand, I have handicapped to the end, but lost anyways.

ALWAYS bet on YOUR games. Meaning advice is fine, but in the end, its your hard earned money. Don't get me wrong. Their is nothing wrong with listening to someone who is on the "same side", but to just bet something blindly because someone told you to, is crazy. Touts and "scamdicappers", are troubling. ANYONE can get a 900 number and buy ads. This theives give the industry a bad name, and makes the good guys(like Ryan Austin,who is experienced, tirelessly handicaps, and play's his own games and is monitored by a service. I recommend him highly as he has given me some plays.)look bad. Unfortunately, there are more con men than honest ones. They recommend a book so they get a cut. Bottom line is they just want your money.

Also bad our celebs or former players. Just because a guy has a "name", doesn't mean he knows anything. Just because you see a show on tv, read the internet hear it on radio or the print media doesn't mean you should run to the phone. Most of these "services"(I will use that term loosely) are scams. They will give one caller one side and the other another. This way they are always in the "game". They will not even play their own games. What does this tell you. They just want you to call, so they can hound you with calls and sell your number to other scamers.

Do your homework. Are they monitored? Not by their mothers, but by a independent service. Are they rude? Do they stall, or tell you to leave your number or call back later? Do "bigger" plays cost more? They shouldn't. They should cater to the biggest whale all the way down to the smallest fish. Don't fall for the line "if this is a loser the rest of the year is free!!!". I just lost a big bet. My money is gone. Why in the world would I keep calling you ? Also keep in mind there are no "stone cold" locks or lock parlays. Be careful.

The best way to make a bet is by going to Vegas. Of course this is not always possible or feasable. I like to go that route. Nothing like having made a bet, having the ticket in hand, as you watch (hopefully its on TV) the event. You then hopefully cash in, and thats that. Be wary of offshore books. Do your homework. Ask co-workers, friends or family to recommend a good book. Just because "Joe Blow" endorses it, doesn't mean its a great book. There is nothing worse than winning a bet, but having to wait for your money, or worse yet, not getting paid at all. I have had this happen to me.

I only deposited about 40 bucks, but got it up to around 400. Then the book "disappeared". I was only actually out $40, but "sweating" games out is priceless. The only drawbacks is withdrawal time, Western Union hassles and sometimes credit card companies, or banks not cooperating. Be careful with your "man". It is illegal(no crying to the police or a lawyer here), not to mention if you were to win, will you get paid? You may not know, if you never have. He collects, but will he pay? Again, be careful.

After making your bet, forget it. Meaning for all intensive purposes, your money is gone. If you are fortunate enough to win, be thankful and glad. Do not start bragging or "I told you so". You were lucky, nothing more or less. Don't forget that time you lost. Karma can be brutal. If by chance you do lose (which will happen more than winning) forget about it. DO NOT "chase" your money, by making bigger bets, dwelling on your next bet or by wagering immediately. Understand you lost, but remember how it felt like to win. There will be other bets. Do not throw caution to the wind, and bet like a mad man. You will only get further in the hole. Take a deep breath, step away from the situation and think. There will be other "spots". Its not the end of the world.

Well if you made it this far, here is my pick. I really like Vasily Jirov over James Toney. I like betting against the public and all the money is going on James Toney. There is value on Jirov, as this fight might be a pick-em fight come bell time. The problem is people know who Toney is. Unless you are a astute fight fan, Jirov is a mystery. He is a good solid fighter, with Olympic pedigree and a good work rate. Decent power. His chin is good, he has never been stopped, only wobbled. He can hurt you to your body. He is a natural Cruiserweight. His conditioning is superb. The only problem he has looked shaky at times. That and the fact that he hasn't fought in over a year, concerns me. He has postponed this fight a couple of times, due to various circumstances. He is undefeated, which plays in his favor. He is also a Euro, which makes me nervous.

Everyone knows about "lights out". He was schooled by Roy Jones Jr. He has lost to lesser men. He has a tendency to be undedicated, unmotivated or just plain lazy. He is also older and past his prime. I don't care what kind of shape he is in, I can't get the old "Toney" out of my mind. He seems to be fit for this fight, but he is running at the mouth. He reminds me of Hasim Rahman before his second encounter with Lennox Lewis. He was out of control, even going to Lewis's dressing room. Lewis stayed cool, like Jirov. He did his talking in the ring. I think Jirov is in the head of Toney. I don't care if this is the "way he is". Give me the quite dude, anytime. Unless it is Ali!!!!

Champs Flurries: Look for the "bald headed bastard" (Antonio Tarver) to win as well. Lewis vs Kirk Johnson is a good matchup. I would rather see this than Chris Byrd get brutally knocked out, or the robot Vitali Klitschko(who hasn't fought anyone except for Byrd). Wlad is out. So I'll watch it. I have no problem with it, as Lewis already has his legacy. Don't worry about Mike Tyson. He will be on board. Mike's on his time. His world. Erik Morales is talking alot of smack. I can't wait for the rubber match with Marco A. Barrera. It will happen. Not sure what to make of Teddy Atlas's latest outburst. And wasn't the Bowe-Holyfield triology grand?

I'm a bit concerned about the Lakers. But not into "panic" mode. Not just yet. The series are going pretty much as expected. KG and T-mac are bad, but Kobe is still the man!!! NHL hockey is bad!!! Overtime and 7 game series are the norm. Unlike hoops, these teams are pretty equal. The "coolest game on ice" is exciting. No doubt. Any doubt Carson Palmer would go #1? I still think Byron Leftwich may be the better QB when it's all done. I know Palmer had a great year, but I can't get the other years at USC out of my head, when he was throwing picks. Plus going to the Bungles? He is already jinxed, in my opinion. Lebron James going pro? No surprises there. He will be the #1 pick as well. I hope this kid is as good as expected. If not, he may be the biggest bust ever.

Looks like the US has a bit egg on their face. No WMD are uncovered (as of yet), and Saddam like Bin Ladan may still be alive. Chemicals were NOT used when the US got within a certain distance of Baghdad. It's a bit embarassing, but at least Iraq was liberated from a brutal dictator. Job well done...

Well thats it fight fans!!!!! Keep your hands up and keep punching for the stars!!!! Take JIROV this weekend !!!