By Jim De Pierro

29.11 - This Saturday’s “Fistful of Dollars” PPV, where eight heavyweights (Tim Witherspoon, Derrick Jefferson, Anthony Thompson, Jeremy Williams, Gerald Nobles, Paolo Vidoz, Ray Austin and Maurice Harris) will participate in a 3 round single elimination tournament with the winner getting $100,000, is so gimmicky I think this thing might actually work and be really successful in generating PPV dollars. In addition fight fans will get to see the Tuaman in action when he faces off in a 10 round bout against former Butterbean foe Russel Chasteen. The official records of all eight participants will not be marked regardless of what happens in the tournament. The Tua and Chasteen fight will be part of the fighter’s official record. With three round fights absolutely anyone of these guys is capable of winning the $100,000 even Paolo Vidoz. Out of eight different fighters any final prediction I make on the eventual winner is likely to be wrong but one thing I can accurately predict is that there is going to be seven very disappointed heavyweights at the end of the night. I plan on coughing up $20 to see what happens. Out of eight different fights chances are at least a few of them should be pretty good.

The format of this PPV is loosely based on the Thunderbox show which if you haven’t seen it is by far the worst boxing I have ever seen. If you didn’t like the format for HBO’s now defunct KO Nation you would absolutely despise Thunderbox. The show Thunderbox is really more about showcasing rap music and cheesy storylines than boxing. Out of a one hour show you get to see one 5 round fight. A typical example of a Thunderbox main event would be Frankie Swindell vs. Samson P’ouha. About the most quality match up I have ever seen on Thunderbox was Tim Witherspoon vs. David Bostice and that ended in a one round blow out when Bostice tasted the canvas three times. What makes Thunderbox even worse is that every fighter has a bimbo who is his manager in the really weak Thunderbox storyline. The bimbos/managers spend most of their time trash talking the other managers even when the actual fight is going on. Thunderbox is the type of boxing show you need to watch with your finger set on the mute button because the commentary is that bad. People love to bash the commentators at HBO, Showtime and ESPN but until you have sat through one episode of Thunderbox you don’t know what really bad commentary is.

David Tua 41-3 (36 KOs) vs. Russell Chasteen 19-5 (13 KOs): This one shouldn’t even be close. The way I figure it anything Butterbean can do David Tua can do it better. Chasteen went the distance with the king of the four rounders back in 1999 and is since 10-4. Unfortunately for Chasteen he has been KO’d in all four of those contests. I won’t even bother mentioning who the 10 people who lost to Chasteen are because they are all garbage. Botha, Briggs and Attila Levin all dispatched of Chasteen in three rounds or less. Akinwande took 5 rounds to do it but that’s probably because Akinwande wanted to give Chasteen a hug before he knocked him out. My prediction is that Russell Chasteen will rise to the occasion, fight the fight of his life and defy expectations by getting KO’d in the 2nd round instead of the 1st. Oh and one more thing Tua will easily win the first round. If Chasteen can make it past the 3rd round against Tua he should consider it a moral victory.

David Tua KO 2 over Russell Chasteen

Thunderbox Tournament

Instead of doing a fight-by-fight prediction of how this tournament will unfold I am just going to give a brief overview of each combatant and whom I think is most likely to emerge as the eventual winner of the tournament.

Ray Austin 17-3-1 (13 KOs) - Austin is probably the most durable of the bunch. Attila Levin is the only person to stop Austin inside the distance and he did so via 9th round TKO. I don’t think anyone in this tournament can KO Austin in a 3 round fight. Austin has above average power and is a threat to anyone he faces in this tournament.

Derrick Jefferson 26-3-1 (20 KOs) - Jefferson brings the firepower to this tournament and is IMO the biggest puncher of the eight men participating. He knocked Maurice Harris out cold in 1999 in what was one of the most exciting fights of that year. It should be noted though that Jefferson was very close to getting KO’d to in that fight. If Harris and Jefferson face each other again it will be interesting to see how both fighters make adjustments based on their previous contests. I haven’t seen Jefferson fight in a while but I have heard that he hasn’t looked very good in his last couple of outings. Jefferson’s biggest weakness is his chin. Jefferson can dish it but he doesn’t take a punch that well. Still he does have a warrior’s heart and with a punch as big as his you can’t count him out of any fight. Derrick Jefferson is one of my favorite fighters and I will be routing for him to win this tournament.

Jeremy Williams 39-4 (35 KOs) - His strengths are that he is a very fast starter and is a master of the quick KO. He has 25 KO victories in the first three rounds. Jeremy Williams can box quite a bit to but his downfall is that he is known for having a suspect pair of whiskers. Maurice Harris boxed circles around Williams with only a few days notice. In a 10 round fight I would pick Harris to beat Williams again but in a 3 round contest I would make it a pick em fight.

Anthony Thompson 17-1 (9 KOs) - Thompson is a very tall lanky southpaw. I have actually seen Thompson fight once and it was against Chester Hughes who he knocked out in the 1st round in what I thought was a very impressive performance. Thompson looks like he can be fierce puncher when he can get leverage behind his right hand. Even if he doesn’t win this tourney Thompson is someone to watch. At 6’6” and being a southpaw with an 81” reach I can see him being a formidable contender in another year or two. I am guessing he is probably a little to green to win this tournament but I think if he was trained right he has the potential to be a heavyweight Tommy Hearns.

Gerald Nobles 20-0 (16 KOs) – I don’t know anything about Nobles but he must be doing something right if he is undefeated. He has been averaging about a fight a year so I think inactivity could be his downfall. There is no love lost between Nobles and Williams who are both entering this contest ultra confident. If Nobles and Williams do meet it would be the final contest and likely a very explosive 3 rounds given the animosity and trash talking between the two of them. Nobles own a 3rd round KO victory against Maurice Harris that took place when Nobles was 5-0 and Harris was 7-7 going into their fight. Interestingly Nobles and Harris are going to fight each other in the first round. I don’t know who wins but I think Harris is a lot better fighter now.

Maurice Harris 19-12-2 (10 KOs) – On paper Harris’s record as a statistic sucks but Harris is one of those rare breed of fighters where the numbers don’t tell the story of what kind of fighter Harris is. Harris is a spoiler and he has already beaten Jeremy Williams who Caesars Palace has opening as a 3-5 favorite to win the tournament. Harris has unique advantage in that he has already faced Nobles and Jefferson which should give him some idea of what to expect should he meet up with Jefferson or Williams later in the tournament.

Tim Witherspoon 55-12-1 (38 KOs) - Old man Witherspoon is in this tournament for the money and I can’t say I blame him considering that he has got several kids who he probably wants to put through college. Take off 20 years and Witherspoon would win this tournament with one arm tied behind his back. I think Jefferson hits a little harder than Witherspoon although many would probably disagree with me but regardless that right hand of Witherspoons spells trouble for anyone if he can land it. I don’t think experience counts for too much in a 3 round format. If anything experience could be a hindrance because someone like Witherspoon is used to fighting 10 and 12 round fights.

Paolo Vidoz 11-1 (7 KOs) - Vidoz doesn’t even belong in this tournament IMO. He’s not much of a puncher and I think he is clearly the lightest hitter of the bunch. He has boxed well on TV on the few occasions that I have seen him but the guys he was fighting were horribly inept. I see plenty of flaws in Vidoz and my guess is that by the end of 2003 when you mention Paolo Vidoz people are going to be like “Paolo who?” Vidoz is coming off his first loss to the feather fisted Zuri Lawrence. Interestingly the two fighters coming off losses (Vidoz and Witherspoon) are facing each other in the first round. I don’t think its likely that Vidoz wins this tournament but remember you could have a situation where Vidoz runs for three rounds and beats Witherspoon while the other participants beat the crap out of each other and are so weakened from their previous fight that they lose to a schmuck like Vidoz. That’s what makes this card really fascinating is that there are so many scenarios that can play out.

Mitch Green 18-6 (11 KOs) – Mitch Green is a joke and a very bad joke at that. Maybe I shouldn’t say that because Green was really before my time and I haven’t seen him fight but I can’t see how a 45-year old fighter who hasn’t won back too back contests since 1984 could be a serious threat to anyone at this point. Hell, I think even Vidoz would beat him easy at this point. To me Mitch Green will always be the guy that got his ass kicked by Tyson in a street fight and continues to whine to this day for a re-match. The only reason I am writing about Green is that he is an alternate in case one of the aforementioned heavyweights should have to drop out of the tournament for whatever reason. The sad thing is that there is probably at least 40% chance that Green will end up participating. A lot of things can happen in a boxing match like a broken ankle (Derrick Jefferosn-Oleg Maskaev) that would render a fighter medically unfit to fight another fight even if he wins a hard fought 3 round fight. At this point if I was an odds maker I would make Green a 100-1 underdog. First you have to consider that there is a good chance he won’t get to participate and even if he does participate what are his chances of actually winning? You never know though once in a while 100-1 flukes do happen.

My best guess is that Jeremy Williams is the most likely to end up the eventual winner. I think the tournament format of three, three round fights favors someone who is a fast starter with and has a history of early KO’s. Jeremy Williams lost decisively to Maurice Harris but I think the only two rounds Williams did win against Harris were in the first three rounds so I think Williams has at least 50-50 chance of beating Harris in a 3 rounder should Harris even make it to face Williams in what would have to be the final clash for $100,000.

I did a little bit of brainstorming and imagined that this tournament was run through to its completion 100 times. In my hypothetical situation each fighter always faces the same fighter in the same round so the overall % I give to each fighter emerging victorious for the 100 K does not necessarily mean that I think the guy with the highest percentage is the best over all fighter. In the event of a draw the fight will be decided by punch stats. A lot of my calculations have to do with who they are matched up with in the first rounds. If this tournament happened a one hundred times here is how I think it would break down percentage wise.

Jeremy Williams 20%

Maurice Harris 17%

Gerald Nobles 15%

Derrick Jefferson 12%

Ray Austin 11%

Anthony Thompson 10%

Tim Witherspoon 9%

Paolo Vidoz 5%

Mitch Green 1%

Ray Austin and Derrick Jefferson are about a pick-em fight as you can get. I am ever so slightly inclined towards Jefferson but I consider it a tossup for who emerges the eventual winner. Jeremy Williams I think is clearly superior Anthony Thompson but predicting Williams to win any fight is always risky because of Williams suspect chin and there is also the possibility that Thompson may be a really good fighter who will rise to the occasion. Gerald Nobles is a complete dark horse. The only definitive thing I know about Nobles from looking at his record is that he did KO Maurice Harris in 3 rounds very early in his career. Given that piece of information I have to guess that Nobles has at the very least 50-50 chance of beating Harris again. Now if Harris makes it past Nobles which is a very big if then his odds of winning the tournament increase significantly since he will be facing either the geriatric Tim Witherspoon or Paolo Vidoz who I think would be a push over for Harris. The Harris-Nobles winner is very likely to get to the final round since either one of them could most likely beat the winner of Witherspoon-Vidoz.

Now if Nobles emerges victorious he would most likely have a harder time fighting the other participants than Harris would have because Nobles is relatively inexperienced and hasn’t faced that high a caliber of fighters in his career. Witherspoon’s chances would be even less than 9% IMO if he wasn’t facing someone like Vidoz in the first round. Getting Vidoz in the first round is almost like getting a bye. My guess is that Witherspoon will more likely than not be one of the four semi-finalists but will lose to the eventual Nobles-Harris winner. Mitch Green, if he becomes a factor should be an easy fight for whoever fights him. I am not sure if the rules allow Green to participate if one of the fighters pulls out of the tournament when some of the rounds have already been completed. Probably the only way Mitch Green could even have an outside chance of winning is if his opponent had already been beaten up some from a previous match and he was allowed to take the place of a winner from the previous round.

Agree? Disagree? Think I’m full of it? E-mail me at jdepierro@adelphia.net or post a comment and tell me what you think.