Boxing
A Hypocrites Weekend and other Predictions
By Jim De Pierro

Mayweather TKO 11 over Jose Luis Castillo

19.04 - As much as I would like to see Jose Luis Castillo [45-4-1 (41)] break Floyd Mayweather [27-0-0 (20)] in half and send him flying into the third row I just don’t think Castillo is the man to do it. Mayweather has to be the biggest hypocrite since Jimmy Swagart. This is the same man that got up on his soapbox and lambasted Diego Corrales for what at the time were pending charges of domestic abuse for hitting his then pregnant girlfriend. I find it particularly galling that Mayweather and his handlers had the nerve during the pre fight build up to his masterful performance against Corrales to dedicate the fight to every woman who has ever been battered. James Prince went even so far as to get Corrales’s girlfriend a front row ticket so she could witness Corrales get beaten. Prince, like Mayweather has no shame as, after calling Corrales every vile name in the book went and signed the con while he is currently incarcerated. Boxing sure makes strange bedfellows.

My how the tables have turned in the course of little more than a year as Mayweather has been handed a six month suspended sentence along with a $3000.00 fine and 48 hours of community service as a result of a plea bargain for two counts of domestic violence. I bet Diego Corrales wishes he could have gotten in on this deal. It would almost be poetic justice if Castillo or his people were to dedicate the fight to Melissa Brim, mother of one of Mayweather’s children, who is currently bringing a $ 1 million civil suit for assault and battery.

It is possible that the out of ring personal distractions might hinder Mayweather’s performance Saturday night but from what I have read of Mayweather his personal life has been chaotic for some time now so it is not likely that his performance will be adversely affected.

I am personally of the opinion that Stevie Johnston won both fights against Castillo by razor thin margins nevertheless Castillo is a legitimate champion. Against Cesar Bazan, Castillo showed his metal and toughness by scoring a knock out against the only other man to blemish Stevie Johnton’s record. Although all four of Castillo’s losses have come inside the distance don’t let that record fool you into thinking Castillo has a glass jaw as he has never been down in his career. All of those losses have been a result of cuts. I don’t think Castillo is going to have any answer for Mayweather’s hand speed or fleetness of foot as Castillo from the few times I have seen him enjoys his best success against stationary targets. Whether Mayweather can stop Castillo is a tough call but I have to think that the volume of punches Mayweather will land on Castillo will at some point take their toll.

One interesting dynamic that might come into play in this fight will be Julio Cesar Chavez who I heard a while back will be working the corner of Jose Luis Castillo. Chavez beat Mayweather’s uncle Roger and current trainer twice forcing him to quit on his stool in his stool in their second encounter via 10th round TKO. Just my hunch but Mayweather might make this fight a little more personal in an effort to avenge his uncle. Chavez’s presence is sure to inspire Castillo as he will look to follow in the footsteps of his idol and fellow Mexican.

Stevie Johnston Split Decision against Alejandro Gonzales

On the undercard of this fight former WBC lightweight king Stevie Johnston [33-2-1 (16)] will be fighting Alejandro “Cobrita” Gonzales [48-4-1 (33)] with the winner likely to face the winner of Castillo-Mayweather some time in the future. Johnston like Mayweather has been in a little bit of legal difficulty lately for failing to pay child support and was briefly jailed against the wishes of the women whom he owes money to. Johnston has been in trouble for DWI a while back. I suspect that since this fight was almost cancelled and Johnston’s training regiment was briefly interrupted he will not be in top form. Some have speculated that Johnston’s better days are behind him I for one think Johnston is still a viable contender.

My knowledge of Gonzales is extremely limited although I have heard that he fights with a lot of heart. Taking a quick look at Gonzales record he has a history of close decisions against name opponents.

Alejandro Gonzales MD over Steve Forbes 3-11-00

Manuel Medina SD over Alejandro Gonzales 9-23-95

Alejandro Gonzales SD over Cesar Soto 8-6-94

Gonzales is even coming off a majority decision victory over a non-descript fighter by the name of Orlando Salido in his last fight in December 2, 2001. My guess is a close or controversial decision.

Charles Brewer KO 4 over Joe Calzaghe

Across the sea in Germany there should be a real barn burner as Charles Brewer [37-8-0 (26)] will for the third time try to capture a title over seas when he faces WBO champ Joe Calzaghe [32-0-0 (27)]. In his previous two attempts Brewer came up short losing by split decision to Sven Ottke on two occasions. Brewer, rightly or wrongly depending on your point of view, feels that he won’t be judged fairly should the fight go to the scorecards and has vowed to go for the knockout. Having seen Calzaghe a few times I can attest to the fact that he is no pushover although I think he has never faced anyone of the caliber of Charles Brewer. Call me an ethnocentric American pig if you want but I don’t think they make as tough in Germany as they do in America particularly on the tough streets of Philadelphia.

Ottke from what I understand is a really crafty defense oriented fighter who would probably give anyone problems. Calzaghe should be easier to hit for Brewer who packs dynamite in his punches. Having lost twice on points overseas I take Brewer at his word that he will be looking for the knockout and nothing else. I am predicting a short night with Brewer either having fallen on his sword or decapitating Joe Calzaghe. Either way it should be a good fight.

David Bostice Majority Draw against Jeremy Williams (third judge favors Bostice)

Sunday Night offers an interesting match up of heavyweight under achievers as Jeremy Williams [36-4-0 (33)] will take on one time heavyweight prospect David Bostice [27-5-1 (13)]. The loser will probably being relegated to the bottom of the heavyweight picture. Jeremy Williams recently came out of a two year hiatus when he knocked journeyman Louis Monaco out cold with the first punch of the fight. Many of you may remember Williams as the guy who got crushed by Henry Akinwande in 3 and lost a lopsided fight to Mo Harriss who subbed for Ike Ibeabuchi on a few days notice. Williams even managed to get knocked out by the Danish pastry Brian Nielson in five.

Bostice for his part hasn’t faired much better as he played the part of a stepping stone for Wladimir Klitschko losing in the second round. There is no shame in losing to Klitschko so early as he has plenty of company but it will be a long time before he ever lives down losing to old man Witherspoon as he was sent to the canvas three times in the first round. Since then Bostice has dropped decisions to Lou Savarese and Frans Botha. Bostice’s activity and size should be a help to him. Whether Bostice can take advantage of his size remains to be seen as I think he will allow Williams to get inside. Williams has a huge edge in punching and his more aggressive style should bode well with the judges. Neither one of these fighters has ever impressed me. I decided to flip a coin to decide who will win this fight and the coin landed on its side.

Agree? Disagree? Think I am full of it? E-mail me at dman4673@earthlink.net and tell me what you think.


Predictions for GooFi vs Austin, Oquendo vs Tua

by Jim De Pierro

GOOFi KO 6 over Ray Austin

11.04 - I don't expect much of a fight on the under card as GOOFi (24-2-0 20KO) should pound out an easy victory over late substitute Ray Austin (16-3-0 12KO) who is taking this fight on three days notice. David Izon was originally slated GOOFi to fight but pulled out due of the fight due to what one boxing news site calls money issues. Izon is shot as a fighter anyhow. His withdrawal is of little significance as he would have faired about the same if not worse than Austin. As I understand it GOOFi is now the legal name of the boxer formerly known as Lance Whitaker so I will refer to him as GOOFi since that is his name. I have only seen Austin fight a couple of times and while he is big and strong he is not in GOOFi’s class and can’t match GOOFi in either size or power.

Fres Oquendo TKO 10 over David Tua

The real show will be the main event between “the throwin Samoan” David Tua (39-3-0 34KO) and Fres “the Big O” Oquendo (22-0-0 13KO). It should be a good fight but I like Fres Oquendo to come out on top. I would never dismiss Tua’s chances entirely as many fighters who thought they could beat Tua learned otherwise at the end of David Tua’s left hook.

David Tua has beaten many formidable opponents in the ring but the biggest hindrance to his boxing career hasn’t been Chris Byrd or Ike Ibeabuchi or even Lennox Lewis for that matter but his mouth or to be more precise all the food he crams into his mouth. Against Lewis his weight was in the the mid 240s. In the few fights leading up to Tua’s fights with Lewis against Daniels and Sullivan his weight even managed to balloon up into the neighborhood of 250 lbs. For a stumpy 5’10” heavyweight with a reach just shy of 70” he needs all the speed he can get to make up for his lack of size and reach. For some fighters extra weight can some times translate into additional punching power but if often comes at the expense of diminished stamina and speed.

After the embarrassing loss to Lewis and a lackluster performance against Danelle Nicholson, Tua finally started taking steps in the right direction by consulting a nutritionist and slimming down to the lower 230 lbs range for the fight against Byrd. I think if their was one fighter in the world that was tailor made for Byrd it would be Tua. Tua’s style has always been one dimensional and to reliant on a big left hook bailing him out of trouble as had been the case for many of Tua’s previous fights. Against a defensive wizard like Byrd one needs to have a whole arsenal of punches. Tua had the right idea of how to go about fighting Byrd which is to make a concerted effort to the body but he wasn’t able to implement it to the extent he needed to beat Byrd. If Byrd had more power in his punches he would have had a serious chance of being able to stop Tua in the later rounds of their fight as Tua was visibly winded. I have heard Tua receives a lot criticism for being winded against Byrd however it should be noted that Vitali Klitschko and Maurice Harriss also showed signs of fatigue in the later rounds while fighting Byrd so some of that has to be attributed to the defensive style of Byrd.

Tua appears to have learned all the wrong lessons from his defeat at the hands of Byrd by insisting that he had lost to much weight to quickly. Tua I have read is in the neighborhood of 240 lbs for this fight. He may have lost to much weight in a short period of time but he is mistaken to think that the answer is to campaign at 240-250 lb heavyweight. Tua needs to get his normal weight lower so that he can make his fighting weight under 230 lbs which is where he enjoyed the most success in his career and helped him get where he is today.

Fres Oquendo, like Byrd, also has very defense oriented style which will give Tua problems. However Oquendo’s style is markedly different from Byrd’s in several respects. Chris Byrd’s style is more stationery in that he will stand right in front of his opponent duck and weave every punch thrown at him and make his opponent look foolishly inept as he peppers them with three, four and five punch pity pat combinations. Oquendo tends to throw shorter but harder combination and his style relies more on ring generalship as he is constantly moving thus not giving his opponents a stationary target. Unlike Byrd though Oquendo’s punches have some pop to them and will eventually take their toll.

I see Tua-Oquendo bout being a similar in tempo to Sullivan-Oquendo as Tua really strikes me as Obed Sullivan times three. Oquendo should be careful though not to go into this fight overconfident. The last Puerto Rican fighter to get in the ring with Tua lasted 19 seconds however I think Tua is a cut above John Ruiz. Oquendo has publicly stated that he wants to be the first to hand Tua his first KO loss. From all accounts he appears to be serious about getting the KO as he is reported to have bulked up to 232 lbs as of a few days ago. Oquendo’s chances of knocking Tua out shouldn’t be dismissed out of hand as Oquendo has demonstrated increasing punching power in his last several fights as he has won his last four fights by KO three of which were against quality opponents.

My official prediction is that the Big O will keep his O and stop David Tua via late round TKO with Tua still standing on his feet but not without going through several rough moments himself. The longer the fight goes the better Oquendo’s chances are. Tua doesn’t have the same stamina he had a few years ago and will be vulnerable in the later rounds. I am probably going to get a few e-mails saying how I am crazy and maybe I am. Someone reading this is bound to be thinking, “If Lewis couldn’t knock out Tua what makes you think Oquendo can?” I certainly don’t think Oquendo hits harder than Lewis but I think Lewis was content to win with minimal risk to himself rather than going for the kayo as I think Lewis could have gotten if he really went for it in that fight. Oquendo strikes me as a pretty brash and confident guy who will bring the fight to Tua when the opportunity presents itself.

* * * * Bonus Prediction * * * *

Lamon Brewster will win the four man WBA elimination tournament with the winner of the tournament most likely to face the winner of Holyfield-Rahman. The other participants in the tournament will be Sergei Lyakovich, Oliver McCall and Danny Williams.

 

 


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