Boxing

 

Jones-Ruiz Predictions

by Jim "Boxadamus" De Pierro


Roy Jones Jr. 47-1 (38 KOs) vs. John Ruiz 38-4 (27 KOs)

(HBO PPV Main Event)

01.03 - Joe Louis said of Billy Conn, "He can run but he can't hide." but Joe Louis never met Roy Jones jr. Roy Jones can run and he will be doing his damndest to hide as much as is possible in 24' square ring. Everyone knows that Jones is good maybe even great but the question is how good is Roy Jones jr. Ruiz may be defending his WBA strap but it will be RJJ defending his P4P title of best fighter in the world Saturday night. I don't believe their is a fighter in the world outside of heavyweight that can beat Roy Jones and that includes Hopkins, Calzaghe, Jirov and Michalczewski. Of todays current heavyweight contenders the only ones out their that I couldn't see Jones of having a realistic chance of beating would be Wladimir Klitschko.

If Ruiz and Jones were naturally the same size the idea of Ruiz beating Jones would be laughable. Make no mistake about it this fight is not of the significance of Billy Conn taking on Joe Louis or Bob Foster doing battle with the likes of Frazier and Ali but it is still a historically significant bout and it would represent the biggest feather in RJJ cap thus far in his career should he pull this off. Much has been ballyhooed in the last few weeks that RJJ would become the first middleweight champion to win the heavyweight championship in over a 100 years much like Bob Fitzsimmons did when he wrested the heavyweight crown from gentleman Jim Corbett in 1897. If Jones wants the distinction and the historical greatness of being a former middleweight to become a heavyweight champion then he needs to be banging on the doors of Lennox Lewis for a shot at the real heavyweight tilte. Still for a light-heavyweight champion to beat a top 5 heavyweight contender is not something to be dismissed lightly.

John Ruiz is a fairly well known quantity as a heavyweight so there is not to much need to analyze what he brings to the table. He is slow, ackward and has a very herky jerky wrestling/clutching type of style that has given boxing fans some of the worst stinkers as far as fights go in the last couple of years. Ruiz is best know and sumarily dismissed by many boxing fans for losing in 19 seconds to David Tua. Despite his faults John Ruiz does have a few attributes that I think tend to get overlooked. Ruiz has one of the most underatted right hands that sent Evander Holyfield and Kirk Johnson twice unnoficially to the canvas. Losining to anyone in 19 seconds is an embarrasment but I don't think losing to Tua in the first round is neccesarily a sign of a weak chin. Tua, if he can land his punches, is capable of beating just about anyone in a matter of seconds. People tend to groan when they hear the name John Ruiz because the first thing that comes to mind is boring fight but I think Ruiz's reputation for producing bad fights isn't all his fault. Holyfield and Johnson are rough and dirty fighters respectively. I won't deny that Ruiz did his fair share of holding in his encounters with Holyfield and Johnson but blame cuts both ways in those fights. In the 11th round of Holyfield-Ruiz II Holyfield put on a hugging display that could have put even Henry Akinwande to shame. Kirk Johnson in the 9th round for all intents and purposes was decked twice as a result of a punch landed by Ruiz. The only reason Ruiz wasn't credited with a knockdown one of those times was because Johnson pulled Ruiz down as he was falling. Ruiz's fights tend to go down the gutter real quick because of dirty tactics. I don't think Ruiz goes into a fight looking to be dirty but Ruiz is the type that will fight fire with fire if he is fouled. Ruiz intentionally headbutted Johnson twice after repeatedly getting hit in the groin. A few of those shots were borderline calls and Ruiz did milk them for all they are worth but that doesn't take away from the fact that Johnson has no discipline and showed similar tendencies for straying south of the border in his first fight with Al Cole that ended in a draw due to points deductions for low blows.

Against Holyfield I think both combatants were about equaly to blame in a foul fested that had more hugging and clutching than actual fighting. I have never seen Jones (other than hitting Montel Griffin when he was taking a knee and thus resulting in Jones one official loss) do anything dirty that suggests to me that he (Jones) will be the one to drag this fight down the gutter.

The biggest question concernng Roy Jones is can he take a heavyweight punch? I find that question odd because I am still wondering if Jones can take a light-heavyweight punch because I have yet to see Jones get caught flush with a punch. The closest I have seen to Jones getting caught was when Lou Del Valle knocked Roy down in the 8th round but even that knockdown is hardly legitimate. The replay clearly shows that Jones went down more due to his feet slipping on the water in the corner as a punch was landed. The promptness by which Jones got up and continued to dominate Del Valle suggest that Roy was never seriously hurt as a result of that punch. For the record I do think Del Valle deserves credit for a knockdown because a punch was clearly landed which forced Jones feet to slip on the water as he was adjusting to the punch but that knockdown should be recognized for what it is which an insignificant slip that proved meaningless in the larger picture of Jones talent. The other question concerning how Jones will fare as a haevyweight is does Jones have the power to hurt or at least deter a haevyweight from running rough shod over him. I am guessing he does. I think Jone's power level as a heavyweight will be somewhere between Chris Byrd on the lower end of the power spectrum but less than that of Evander Holyfield. That translates into a clearly below average heavyweight in punching power but someone with enough pop that they could hurt you if the opponent is careless The thing to consider about Jones that make him a dangerous puncher is that Jones can hit his opponents with punches that they never saw coming. Glenn Kelly is the epitomy of an inflated record no talent hack but even so how many people could put there hands behind their back and have their opponent sprawled out on the canvas the next second like Jones did? To do that even against a bum like Kelly is a remarkable feat. Its almost like Willy Pep winning a round without throwing a punch.

On a personal level I am pulling for Ruiz to win this fight. Ruiz is really the one that made this fight a reality. Ruiz doesn't grate on my nerves the same way Roy does and at least Ruiz doesn't pollute the airwaves by pretending he can rap. Ruiz, at least to me comes across as a fairly likeable guy. I can't say the same about his manager though but I will say this for Norman Stone. Stoney is the kind of guy even if I don't particularly like him, who if he is your friend will stand by you in thick and thin. In the cut throat world of professional boxing that can be a rarity. Ruiz is the type of guy if your playing poker with him and you try to bluff him he is going to call you and show you up. That is what I think Ruiz did when he agreed to Jones ridiculous terms in making this fight. The thing that Ruiz doesn't understand is that Ruiz is a man playing with straight who thinks he has his man beat only he doesn't realize Roy Jones is playing with a full house. I think Ruiz is banking on the fact that he is bigger and stronger than Jones to be enough to win this fight for him.

I don't see Jones as the coward that many make him out to be but the track record over the years clearly shows IMO that Jones hasn't gone out of his way to seek the challenges that boxing fans want him to pursue. Bernard Hopkins talks a good game but Hopkins is every bit if not more snake skinned Jones. For Jones to share 50-50 split with a guy he beat one handed years ago would be stupid on his part. If Hopkins really wanted to fight Jones he would have taken the 6 million dollars beat Jones if he thinks he is that good and beat him again in a rubber match for even more money. I think Hopkins would get smoked by Jones in any day or age myself.

As for Michaelczewski his only claim to fame is his undefeated record. People complain about RJJ fighting only bums DM is far worse than Jones in his quality of oppostion. The best fighters that DM defends his title against are all RJJ leftovers and he doesn't even beat those guys completely. One common myth I would like to correct that I see spread in the ESB messageboards fairly often is that Jones said he would DM in a neutral country for $24 million dollars. That is not true. Jones never said that. That was an interview he did with a writer for fightnews.com in which he was asked how much would he have to be paid to fight DM. Jones stated that he would fight DM in Germany for $25 million. The interviewer then asked if he would fight DM for less money in a neutral country. Jones said he would fight DM for less than $25 million in a neutral country at which point the writer put in parentheses ($24 million?). The $24 million figure was only the interviewers interpretation of what Jones was saying not what RJJ actually said. The words twenty four million never came off of RJJ's lips. To criticize Jones is fine but criticism should be based on facts not on how you would like the facts to be.

The only thing that makes me want to pull for Jones (other than the fact that I am predicting him to win and I like my predictions to be accurate as certainly last weeks prediction was way off the mark) is that some of the anit-RJJ people annoy me more than the anti-Ruiz people. People that hate Ruiz tend to do so IMO because they can't stand his style of fighting which is understandable. With Jones its another story. Some anti-RJJ are just completely irrational that they just ignore reality in their attempts to besmirch RJJ as the biggest coward to walk the face of the Earth. RJJ is a business man first plain and simple. He's just a very talented, intelliegent man with a big mouth. I don't mean lump all anti-RJJ fans into one group cause I consider myself anti-RJJ. Some people don't like Jones cause he hasn't fought the fights fans want to see him fight (until now at least). I don't like Jones but I recognize him for the talent that he is.

It is true that Jones has more to gain from this fight than Ruiz. Many people will dismiss Ruiz if he wins because he just beat a smaller man that he outweighed by at least 30 lbs. but I for one won't be one of them. If Ruiz wins (and he may very well win but I don't expect him to) I will give him some credit for beating Jones. I won't give Ruiz the full amount of respect that I would had a light-heavyweigh boxer beaten Jones but to beat the the number 1 P4P fighter in the world even if you outweigh him by 30 to 40 lbs. still deserving of some recognition. For those of you reading this column who think I lightly dismiss Ruiz I don't. I predicted Ruiz to beat Kirk Johnson. An important thing to remember is that Ruiz didn't start his career as a heavyweight so he isn't exactly a full blown natural heavyweight. Ruiz 1st loss was to a cruiserweight by the name of Sergei Kobuzev. Now I don't know much about the late Sergei Kobuzev

but I doubt he was anywehre near as good as Jones.

Ruiz poses some problems for Jones that Jones has never encountered before and that will be the interesting thing to see Saturday night. Obviously Jones has never faced anyone as strong as Ruiz or as big. David Telesco and Julio Gonzales are comparable in terms of height and reach to some heavyweights but their physical advantages proved to be of little use against the lightning fast hands and skill of RJJ. Ruiz's size advantage will be good for pushing Jones around as it will be very detrimental for Jones to get in a wrestling match with Ruiz. On the other hand its much easier for a lighter fighter to fight at a sustained pace over 12 rounds because he is carrying less weight on his feet. Jones is coming into this bout at about 190 lbs. A 190 lbs. can mean one of two things in my mind. I don't believe this to be true but on the other hand I can't entirely dismiss it. It may be that Jones coming in so light doesn't believe that he is going to win this fight and he wants to keep his weight down so that he can easily move back down to defend and reclaim some of his light-heavyweight titles. I think Jones's reasons for coming in at about 190 lbs is that he realizes he can't hope to match power and bulk with Ruiz in such a short amount of time that it isn't even worth trying. I think Jones rightly sees his best chance of winnning this fight by capitalizing on his biggest strength which is speed and to do that it is in his best interest to come in at his most natural weight without diminishing his speed.

Here is how I see the fight breaking down. You can't beat what you can't hit and herein lies the problem for John Ruiz. Jones is going to run circles around Ruiz. I don't think Jones is simply going to run his way to victory. I think Jones will be employing guerilla warfare. He will stand and trade shots with Ruiz for short duration but he will be in and out of there before Ruiz knows what hit him. I think Jones is going to score with a lot of quick shots that in reality won't individually hurt Ruiz that much but will look big because they are so quick and will either snap Ruiz's head back or land with a resounding thud on ruiz's rib cage that the judges will have to take notice. I expect Jones will build up enough of an insurmountable lead in the early rounds that he will be able to coast in the last three rounds to take the victory from Ruiz. Ruiz might be able to solve the puzzle of how to win rounds against jones but I think even if he does figure that out its going to be to little to late in the fight. Eventually the cumulation of punches are going to take their toll on Ruiz's face and Ruiz is going to look bloodied and battered by the end of this fight. Just as the matador slays the bull cut by cut and slice by slice so to will Roy Jones wrest the WBA heavyweight belt from John Ruiz. Ruiz will be closing the gap in the later rounds but it will be to little to late. Jones will win enough rounds convincingly that even corrupt Don King judges will have to give the fight to Jones.

Roy Jones Jr. majority decision over John Ruiz

Agree? Disagree? Think I am full of it? E-mail me at boxadamus@surfglobal.net or post a comment and tell me what you think?

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