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Mayweather-Castillo II, Klitschko-McCline and Martin-St.John Prediction
By Jim De Pierro
Floyd Mayweather Jr. 28-0 (20 KOs) vs. Jose Luis Castillo 46-5 (42 KOs)
As of yesterday I was confident in my prediction that Mayweather would win again but now I am not so sure. Being a no show at a press conference because you are afraid of getting tough questions from reporters is pretty strange behavior for a fighter especially considering appearing at press events is part of Mayweather’s contract with Top Rank. This might be a sign of out of the ring distractions and lack of mental preparation but nevertheless I am going to stick with my original prediction that Mayweather will win another very closely contested fight on points. Castillo, IMO is kind of like Mickey Ward in that I think he can only fight one way. I expect Mayweather will be more accustomed to fighting at lightweight this time around. Castillo will probably be looking for the KO based on how poorly he was treated by the judge’s scorecards in the first fight. The first fight was close enough that I felt it could have gone either way but Mayweather certainly didn’t win by 4 and 5 point margins. In terms of being a real fight the first encounter between Mayweather-Castillo was definitely won by Castillo in the sense that he inflicted more damage on Mayweather than he took in return but I don’t think Castillo was dominant in enough rounds to say the fight was an out and out robbery.
One thing I always take into consideration when making a prediction on a boxing match is politics. Whose financial interest is best served if a certain fighter wins. Bob Arum, who is the promoter for this fight has been quoted saying words to the effect that Winky Wright would never get a shot at Oscar Delahoya because he is not Hispanic and the fight wouldn’t generate much interest. At first glance this would seem to indicate that Arum would prefer to Castillo to win since Castillo being Mexican would be more appealing to Hispanic boxing fans. I have a different theory of what Arum would like to see happen and I might be completely wrong on this. I think Arum’s financial interests are best served if he makes Mayweather one of these types of boxers where fans will pay big money to see him lose. Its for this reason that I think Castillo stands a good chance of getting the short end of the stick if the fight goes to the scorecards again.
Floyd Mayweather UD over Jose Luis Castillo
Wladimir Klitschko 39-1 (36 KOs) vs. Jameel McCline 28-2-3 (16 KOs)
I have a high amount of respect for both fighters and whoever wins this fight will get full props from me. Wladimir is clearly the better of the two brothers IMO and gets a lot of undeserved flack for running out of gas against Ross Purrity. Wlad didn’t quit anymore against Purritty than Derrick Jefferson did against David Izon and I have never heard anyone say that Derrick Jefferson was a quitter or lacks heart. Vitali did quit against Byrd and is deserving of the label quitter but that was Vitali’s own fight and it shouldn’t affect Wlad’s reputation.
I really considered going with McCline in this fight. I have changed my mind about 5 or 6 times but I have finally decided that I think Klit will pull it off against McCline. McCline is a spoiler and I remember getting burned by him twice before when I thought he would succumb to Grant and Whitaker and I may very well get burned a third time but I think the difference is that Grant and Whitaker underestimated McCline. To some extent I don't think they really saw McCline as anything more than a stepping-stone. Now Wladimir Klitschko didn't get a Ph. D by being stupid. I think Klit has done his homework. One thing I noticed about the Wlad is that he is incredibly humble for a boxer. I don't think he is the type to go into a fight feeling he can't lose. Klit, I think is the type who will come in with an effective game plan. Its amazing how all these chess nerds like the Klit bros. and Lewis can bring their skill at a board game and manifest that skill in a boxing ring.
McCline for his part is a lot smarter than most people give him credit for. I doubt he has the book smarts of Klitschko but his learning curve for a fighter with only one amateur fight is amazing. McCline has had plenty of sparring with some of the best names in the game so I don't think he will be out of his league with Klitschko. I guess there really must be something to all that new age meditation and yoga and fitness training McCline has done because it really seems to have paid dividends for him.
I think Klit is going to get hit more in this fight than any fight he has been in to date. My guess is that Klit's chin is pretty solid because I remember Jefferson did get in a left hook on Klit and he took it pretty well. McCline, I doubt hits as hard as Jefferson. Wlad only seems to get credit for his win over Byrd but I think his performances against Jefferson and Barrett were also very good showings that aren't often mentioned. I give a slight edge to Wlad in the quality of opposition he has faced but I think in many ways McCline might have the more relevant experience because he has faced men just as big as him in Grant and Whitaker. Also McCline used to be a sparring partner for Lennox Lewis so he certainly is not going to be intimidated by a big man like Klitschko. I am not so sure how Klitschko is going to react to a fighter who is naturally bigger than him by a natural 15-20 pounds. Based on the pictures of the weigh in McCline looks to be in incredible shape leading Klitschko to say that he looks like a body builder. Of course Fernando Vargas looked spectacular in the days leading up to his bout with ODLH and it didn’t do him any good. I don’t think McCline is on roids though.
My guess is that McCline if he is to win would have beat Klitschko very decisively in 7 of the 12 rounds that this fight is scheduled for. I think it will be close with Wlad looking a little stronger early on and McCline mounting a late rally later in the fight to make it close on the judge’s scorecards. I think there will be some bombs but surprisingly no knockdowns.
Wladimir Klitschko UD over Jameel McCline 115-113, 115-113, 115-114
Christy Martin 44-2-2 (31 KOs) vs. Mia St. John 26-1-1 (13 KOs)
Photo: Tom Casino
06.12 - I can’t see this fight being even remotely competitive. This fight as a PPV attraction is about as good as Mia St. John’s boxing skills and Christy Martin’s sex appeal. I have absolutely no respect for Mia St. John’s skills as a boxer. Christy Martin is not particularly ugly but she won’t sell tickets based on her looks. I think woman’s boxing is going to take a backwards step after this fiasco. If I was going to buy this card and I am not it would be to see Junior Jones on the under card.
The coal miner’s daughter should make quick work of Mia “silicone” St. John. Mia St. John will put forth the best effort she can but I don’t think it will amount to anything. Just about every intangible favors Martin to win this fight. St. John has fought her entire career at lightweight and she is not even that good of a lightweight female boxer. Mia got a gift decision against Kristy Follmar who had only 2 pro fights going into her bout with St. John. St. John was also beaten in two rounds last year by Rolanda Andrews whose record at the time was an unimpressive 3-5 (1 KO).
Christy Martin is a full blow welterweight and is probably the greatest woman fighter of all time. Not that that is saying much at this point. Martin is the more skilled of the two and hits a lot harder than St. John. If this fight ends up going more than 2 rounds it will probably be because Martin is carrying St. John. Martin said she plans on punishing St. John for 4 or 5 rounds before knocking her out but I think that is just talk to sell a few more tickets. I think this fight will last about 90 seconds before the referee realizes this is a complete mismatch and Mia St. John is out of her league.
Christy Martin TKO 1 over Mia St. John
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