The smart money is on Money according to the odds, the smart Manny will be all over Money as well scanning him for glitches. This fight is expected to set new financial records and is presumed to be the richest boxing fight in history. Seat prices vary from $1500 to $10000, not exactly a people’s fight, and pay per view is 89.95 – HD 99.95. Whatever golden standards it sets, the suspense has created unrealistic expectations among casual and professional fans (analysts, writers and commentators) that make several educated guesses a day on top of their official predictions. The most important prediction – that of the bookmakers – places Mayweather as a firm betting favorite and odds makers take nervous care in preparing their forecast as they are guaranteed to be taken up on it. Rugs and riches aside, from pure boxing/sporting point of view this fight would do well to be considered among the top 50 of all time once the initial excitement wears off.
The present managerial/marketing malarkey in the boxing industry has kept the showdown on the back burner for so long it was pushed towards its expiration date. Freddy Roach believes Mayweather “got embarrassed into taking this fight” but the key factor could be that rival promoters and networks found consensus in view of a golden opportunity. Both Money and Manny are past their primes and experience and wisdom will have to make up for the missing sparks in their game. Floyd Mayweather Jr is 38 and the most visible aging signs for him are his faded foot speed and tarnished defensive reflexes. Manny Pacquiao is 36 and the wear and tear is catching up with him as well, the impact of his punches is evaporating and his discipline/attention span has declined. Despite his low key image he comes across as too rich and famous to fight.
Size matters in boxing and the edge is for Mayweather, he is an inch and change taller but most notably his reach is 5 inches longer (72″:67″). It matters both in offense and defense. He appears to be more flexible of the two and can lean in and out range without moving his feet while Pacman moves like a compact unit and does not bend in the waist so much but squats.
The congressman is a southpaw, always an inconvenience for an orthodox opponent. Southpaws have told me they are awkward for each other as well as they fight another southpaw as rarely as anyone. There is an algorithm for fighting left handed boxers and Mayweather has the best weapon for the job at his disposal – a long range straight right shot, fast and accurate. His habitual direction of movement will have to be altered to accommodate the fact that the lefty will circle predominantly counter-clockwise and pivot in the opposite direction.
Footwork and movement have been traditional assets for Mayweather but I expect Pacquiao to make better use of ring space. The Filipino uses his mobility offensively and aggressively while Floyd is best known for his defensive equilibrium. The stylist Floyd is keeping correct form at all times while Manny is often unconventional and is cutting corners as far as technique is concerned which makes him quite unpredictable. While the American is scholastic and reliable in his actions in the ring, Pacman is instinctive and runs chaotic circles around opponents defying good form and technique. He takes chances and has a bad habit of moving in straight lines but he does it fast.
Punch power may not be a decisive factor – punch accuracy will matter more for both rivals. Mayweather has a high connection ratio but low output, Pacman will probably throw much more often without aesthetic considerations. An ascetic sharp shooter against a trigger happy machine gunner, single punches will hardly turn the tables, cumulative damage will matter most. Whoever lands more in the first half of the bout could rely on late dividends. Manny might go to the body while Mayweather will head-hunt devotedly. If someone ever gets the other guy in trouble, I’d expect this to be Pacqiuao. Mayweather does not commit with shots, he has deeply set habits for throwing arm punches and hardly goes after an opponent looking for the finish. Pacquiao does not necessarily punch harder even if he commits but his volume and variety could give him an edge if they decide to battle it out.
Game planning naturally will involve opponent-specific adjustments that will predicate further physical challenge for both combatants. Pacquiao’s stance requires additional offensive efforts from his opponent, an increased number of right hands that could reflect on the punch stats as a higher percentage of power shots as opposed to jabs. There will be other variations off Mayweather’s usual routine and Floyd’s range and cunning maneuvers will demand more energy spent on ring generalship than Pacman is accustomed to; he will have to use his legs defensively and curb his natural tendencies when he is near the ropes. Mayweather should impose his rhythm to counterbalance the anxious tempo of the aggressor.
The congressman has little to lose in this fight, he does not have a “0” to cherish and his legendary status is not affected by the fact that he has lost 5 times. His legacy will not be affected adversely by a loss to a star of Floyd’s magnitude. It suffered very little form a KO loss to his arch-rival JMM so the fight with Mayweather is a win/win situation for him. He is regarded as the driving force that made the fight happen regardless of his opponent’s apparent reluctance.
Floyd Mayweather did not really need the fight and he was pressured by public demand into accepting the challenge. Public demand is what turned this match up into an Eldorado of sorts and pitted Pretty Boy against a truly awkward opponent. Floyd’s zero appears to be a fetish for him and he has placed it in jeopardy against Pacquiao’s fighting spirit. It will be more and more endangered the closer he gets to the 49-0 hurdle. If he loses the fight his inviolate status with the mainstream will be lost and the flood gates of criticism will be wide open. He is the stylist with the amateur pedigree who comes from a boxing family and grew up in the gym but his win against the Filipino national hero is not a foregone conclusion. If both boxers were in their prime it would have been an easier fight for Mayweather but age and politics add variables that should make the bookies extremely nervous.
Floyd Mayweather’s Olympic/amateur pedigree gives him a basic advantage in the sense of more refined technical skills and better bio-mechanical grasp of boxing dynamics. The edge in technique should provide him with the tool to tame the hyperactive politician in the ring. My dilemma is whether to root for the underdog as usual or whether to side with the ex-amateur as always, however the safer bet is on Money. The better-be-smart Manny will be all over Money as well so fans ought to get their money’s worth.